Category Archives: Consequences

Orem, Utah, 10th September 2025

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If you live outside of the USA and until today have not heard of Charlie Kirk, then chances are you will by now. A far right activist favoured by Trump and on the 10th September 2025 slain by a currently unknown gunman. In the eyes of The Right now elevated from a favoured son into a Martyr and a Hero. And unless you are someone devoted to the MAGA and Trump, where do you start?

There is a mirrored synchronicity of 9/11 unfolding. Firstly, because what would normally be a day of solemn reflection and for many recollections of where they were has now turned into another media event which will have effects on America. Although this one could have far greater repercussion, 9/11 tore at America’s heart and soul, this assassination has the capacity to shake a foundations already weakening by a series of other quakes. So where do you start?

Are you saddened at another loss of life through violence and worried for the future?
Are you angered and in mourning from a bright young man taken from you?
Are you fearful for you and yours at the random backlash by an extreme Right Wing has a propensity for violence, encouraged by a volatile president?
Are you just satisfied, taking a ‘Game On Stance’; even if it is only secured away in a small place in your being and will only be let out in some long coded way?
Are you detached with a ‘Those Who Live By The Sword Die By The Sword’ outlook?
Or are you far enough gone to just rejoice?

In writing this being British but essentially ‘intolerant of Intolerance’ I am detached. There are qualifiers though. Spare at least a thought.
For his wife Erika who was watching the event and his children, one old enough to possibly perceive some of what is happening. There is a pain none of us should ever wish upon anyone.
For those youngsters witnessing a close up killing who will have that image branded on their minds. Their innocence ripped away from them and Reality ground into their souls.
For those of his family and true friends, who have lost someone close.

As I write this, the breaking news on BBC is that the FBI have a weapon, possible forensic evidence and now they have an image of the Person of Interest. Whether this will result in a rapid detention remains to be seen. Sudden assumptions would have been made along the ‘Grassy Knoll’ line and the Conspiracy Industry would have gone into overdrive. We could have been forgiven for thinking the assassin was one with professional experience, the accuracy of that shot?  Along comes The Action Film scene through a scope, the shot and then camera to the face of a hardened veteran looking grim and stealing away. Instead, we might have to consider a young loner with an agenda, who was aiming for the head but hit the throat.

Motivations? One volunteer of an extremist group?  One truly lone gunman? Just looking to kill one particular target? Or seeking the chance to throw one final match on a forest of folk tinder-dry through polarisation and start the urban war the shooter yearns? Or maybe some disenchanted MAGA member? Or maybe just someone looking to make a play for infamy? Or someone so far out anyone with a profile would do?

Whoever and whatever. In a year with so far 150+ acts deemed as political violence this one comes perilously close to setting off a whole sequence of events, the parallel of which sits back in 1914 in a town with its named etched into history, Sarajevo and a previously inconsequential fellow Gavrilo Princip. Would that I might be just one person writing alarmist rhetoric. But I am not am I? A fear which has been simmering amongst Americans since Trump first got into the Whitehouse will have been notched up.

And I worry for you all.
For those who do not want violence at all; the innocents are always the first, last and most to suffer.
For those who dally with the idea of violence, because unless you have been in a place riven by communal violence you seriously do not know what you are dealing with.
For those who dream about violence, are you ready to live as people did in Northern Ireland for thirty plus years, never who is at your door, checking underneath and all over your car?

There is one person who I have no sympathy for and that is your president. He has dallied with violence, he has made NO appeal to those who did not vote for him, he has poured forth irrational invective. If he had cared so much for Charlie Kirk then why did he not use his presidential power to ensure the man had some more efficient security? Somebody else has died for you Trump. Because of your ego, your vanity, your stupidity. And I fear they will not be the last.

For my friends in the USA
For those I exchange views with,
For those I do not know, but just want a quiet life,
For those who will loose their innocence.
For those who will see their dreams turn to nightmares
I worry and fear for you          

Woe To Those Innocents and The Damage They Bring

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That ‘fellow’ who was voted in as president of the USA said this did he not?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cvg4zwwez9et

Did anyone who did not vote because of this issue think for one moment that he would not play court to the ultra nationalist crew in Israel? Play at the behest of his fundamentalist allegedly Christian supporters?  Did they for one moment truly understand just what they were culpable in by being a part of allowing him back into the Whitehouse?

Yes, some are soothing themselves with a balm upon their consciences, they are trying to equate Harris /Biden with Trump’s stance.  

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/uncommitted-leaders-stand-2024-strategy-trump-floats-gaza-takeover-rcna190782 

In the harsh bloodied world of Reality, they have gone into Denial and will hide there. For no doubt their will tell themselves they were correct and this was the ‘moral stance’.

Pray what help is that to the surviving ordinary Palestinians trying to repair or scrabble through the wrecks that were once their homes? How do these pious words act as comfort to those folk who now have to face not just the IDF, but a possibility of being a place where the USA could once again militarily confront any number of fundamentalist groups – who by the way will also conduct their own turf wars in a dystopian landscape? Will these sanctimonious stances and maybe another set of marches stem the tears of one Palestinian child?   

Understand this, and understand it well. Out there is a harsh, violent, cruel world, one which millions upon millions upon of USA citizens have been gifted not to day by day, physically live in. Out there, whether they like it or not there are other millions upon millions of folk, these living in misery and fear where violent Death is a fact. Where the least, worst choice is hoped for, because they have no option. The protest wing’s duty was to try and minimise the misery inflicted upon them. Because they chose to protest, it was indeed a duty, a moral one. They knew full well what a Trump Administration was capable of, They knew he has no concept of the necessary interplays of international politics on the ground. They knew full well who he would favour. And they did nothing to stop his march to the Whitehouse?

No, they do not get to insist upon a morally clean and principled stance. If they wanted to help they had to take a less than perfect option. Maybe not be totally comfy with the choice. Going in there hoping their choice did not screw things up. But it is a great deal better than leaving the door open to the Worst Alternative. And that is the bitter, harsh, uncomfortable Reality to be faced with in this world. Palestine, Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar, Kashmir, Northern Nigeria, DRC, Hatti, Horn of Africa, Drug Lord regions of South American states, the Sahel region (look it up), those are samples of what is going on out there. And they who did not vote Democrat because of Palestine I accuse were culpable in letting Trump and his court take a second shot at.

And consider Canada, Panama, Greenland, as well, now that, that fellow is lose, with his Court.

I stress. There are, in this world, in this time, No Perfect Solutions. There are.

Least.

Worst.

Options.

Bleak isn’t? Yes, that’s The Real World. And the only way out is NOT to let folk like Trump into government. 

Bottom Line.

My only comfort is that they are and were truly tragic Innocents if they thought their stance was going to be of any help to anyone. Oh most regrettable people.

And there is worse than that.

Now those most regrettable folk also have to answer to:
Immigrants within the USA worried about their futures.
Women who will be fearful of getting pregnant.
Folk in the LGBT+ community.
Minorities, never mind how deep their roots within the USA .
US public service workers

Yes, they, along with a few million other US non-voters have to answer to their own fellow citizens. 

As a senior manager I served under and looked up to, used to say, with a large sigh:

‘Oh protect us from the inexperienced person in authority with Well Meaning Intentions’ 

Changes of Circumstances and Opportunities-January #BlogBattle- Familiar

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Perrik Jek looked up from his work bench, or desk, depending on what he was doing. A cat had leapt up upon it and sat there solemnly viewing him.
‘Sorry,’ said Perrik ‘The Guv’nor doesn’t work with familiars. Not required in his line of work,’
The arrival’s head lowered. Being correctly identified and rejected in one sentence could be quite disappointing.
‘You’ve not heard my references yet,’
Perrik was not a hard-hearted fellow, for he too had known the tough side of Life, but facts was facts. He set down his quill and apexed his hands. This would be a diversion from the maths that weren’t adding up.
‘You might have good ones. I’m not denying you don’t. You might have a most impressive list of contacts and associates,’ his eyes went ceilingward ‘Up there,’ then his tone lowered ‘Or,’ as did his thumb ‘down there,’ a shrug ‘My Guv’nor don’t care. He doesn’t get involved in that line of thought. He’s all about the maths,’
The feline shape down descended into a despondent hunch.
‘It’s true then,’ continued Perrik ‘There has been a falling off in the need for familiars,’
‘I blame those populist sort of daemons,’ came the forlorn response ‘You don’t get the class you used to. Had to work hard for your client to get an audience with The Spectral Folk, they were very particular. And there’s the knowing which ones were the recommended one. It’s no use matching your business inclined sort with a spirit of The Woods now is there? A right clash of cultures that would be. And wouldn’t do your reputation any good with either side,’ the feline head shook sadly in a human manner ‘There was an air of class, there was. Then along came modern times, all these mechanical inventions, polluting up the ether. And the quality Spectral Folk, they wouldn’t put up with that. No, they started to move off to other plains, for beyond our reach,’ the voice dropped to a whisper ‘Some in the trade reckon they’ve dropped old ethical divides and started up a whole new set of outlooks, which is why we can’t reach them. So what happens? Along come those cheap rate populist types. Horns on their heads, tongues hanging out, no sense of common decency. Lazy approach to summoning, letting any idiot with a shaven head and comic robes call them and not through the proper channels. And for what? A lot of rowdy capering. We don’t want to get involved it that. Those populists, they bring along their own nasty little servants; trying to be physical with you, or eat you, or both. A hard working, decent familiar does not want to get involved with that. Do they now?’
Perrik had always found it best to let someone aggrieved with their current status to have their say and deflate down, then get a word in edgeways. Particularly familiars. If you got them annoyed they could hide themselves into all sorts of places and mutter away for days. Of course, the Guv’nor would not be happy having his mathematical concentrations on calculations and incantations interrupted with mutterings. Perrik would have had to find the disgruntled familiar and chase them out, which he would have to do in his meal, leisure and sleep time allotments of course. He put on his best sympathetic air.
‘Oh I see, all your centuries of working up contacts, ways, means and general empathetic interfacing has been made redundant?’
He’d never seen a feline face look mournful before. He got up from his seat.
‘Least I can do is give you some time by the fire and a bit of lunch. We’ve got some mince. It’s the Guv’nor y’see. He tends to the simple, It’s his aesthetic,’
The familiar coughed, Perrik guessed it was stifling an actual purr. Hazards of the dual personas he supposed.

Perrik was just serving up the meal on a metal platter when Master Mackveylan Purveyor of Knowledge appeared and naturally scowled.
‘I thought there was something of interference upon the Second Oculator. Jek why are you hosting this feline, which is evidently not a feline?’
Perrik had to give the familiar their due, they simply licked a paw, turned their attention upon the mince while purring loudly and as all cats can do, ignored the new arrival as unimportant to the business to hand. Good composure and role play, he thought.

Mackveylan (Purveyor of Knowledge) was not so easily put off.
‘You know the rules full and well Jek. No familiars. Otherwise I am surprised that you should be taken in so. The Second Oculator is ever accurate,’
Perrik did not think it wise to mention last Winter Tyde unfortunate incident with the pound of sausages. His Guv’nor was very sensitive on that score and it would not help matters. He would try another tact, after all pride in his street heritage demanded it of him, that and the appearance of a creeping sense to do with survival.
‘Oh yes Master Mackveylan. Oh yes. And normally I would agree, but there seem to be circumstances which you could call extenuating. Now from my background Guv’nor I’ve heard most variations on the theme of ‘stringing someone along’, and can tell a spinner twenty paces off,’ he stroked the feline back, there was another purr. ‘This one has come with accounts from the other side. The one which doesn’t bother with maths,’

Mackveylan drew himself up to quite noticeable height in a stance of authority and an expression of determination.
‘Everything,’ he said in his stentorian way ‘Has to defer to Mathematics my dear Perrik,’
The familiar turned its head from the now empty platter and gave Mackveylan a look which Perrik could only define as irritation of a pitying sort, then settled down into one of those curled crouches cats adopted when about to do something quick and unexpected. Quite uncaring about the disapproving glare Mackveylan was visiting upon it. Perrik was used to this look which always worked upon customers, idlers and the occasional rival who crossed paths with the Guv’nor, the familiar however was not taking any notice and Perrik suspected the Guv’nor might not know what to do next.
‘Dispose of it immediately,’ the words sounded as if they brimmed with authority, however Perrik was sceptical. It was not like The Guv’nor to delegate major tasks, when he was offended, he would resorted to one of his devices. But The Guv’nor always left the expulsion of familiars to him. Apparently they were considered vermin and thus not worthy of his attention. It was all there in the tone.
The familiar stiffened.
And the door blew in.
Standing there was a human sized rodent shaped being, how tall Perrik couldn’t say as it was affecting a hunch, and what might be a toothy leer. It was dressed in rags, well by Perrik’s keen eye not proper rags, not real street worn and genuine filth caked rags, these were the sort rich folk wore when they went to beggar themed parties. The smell was pretty awful though. It’s attention was all on Mackveylan, and it spoke in a scratchy high pitch.
‘I am Skreeeee-Pitch-Twip. Faithful servant of the Great Lord Squeeee-Skitter-Skacmper-Hissss. And I am here on a commission from Humerdin Ganpdu, who hasth made a fearful pact with us The Host Beneath The Streets,’
Despite the shock of the entrance and the actually disturbing sight Perrik could not help but feel he was at an exhibition of bad acting.
‘Humerdin Ganpdu,’ echoed Mackveylan ‘That fourth-rate trickster,’
The rodent thing made a peculiar tittering noise, Perrik assumed laughter
‘His status in your dim eyes matters not, for he had paid for us to dispose of you. And thus we propereth,’
The creature hunched more and advanced claws outstretched.
‘This cannot be. This is a mathematical nonsense,’ objected Mackveylan ‘Begone,’ and he produced an ornate device of bright metal in the shape one of the new gunpowder pistols, it buzzed, sparks flew out of the barrel, it hummed, then sighed and stopped. Mackveylan was then astonished, then dismayed.
The creature advanced, Perrik made to pick up a chair and see if a heavy thwack on the back of its head might do something. If they survived this there would definitely have to be a great deal of reappraisal.
The familiar still crouched began to grow in size, at a rapid pace too, until it should have taken up most of the room but none of the items seemed affected. Silently it leapt upon the rodent thing, caught it in its mouth, threw it up into the air and when it landed batted it about the forepaws for a while, then bit into its neck. The creature’s only contributions to the business had been a lot of frightened squealing. After the bite this had stopped, both parties shrank back to the conventional size of the animals they affected to imitate, the familiar dinning on the body.
Perrik had been involved catching his Guv’nor who had fainted. While propping him up Perrik tried to process what was taking place. The familiar looked at him.
‘Oh don’t look so pale. This is all allegorical. What I am actually doing in using a spell to despatch this creature back to the sub-plane it normally resides in. This is a poor state of affairs if you’ve got an infestation of The Host Beneath The Streets, they are not very impressive really, except when there are lots of them. Wouldn’t have happened in the old days,’ there was a shaking of the feline head ‘What I was telling you about wasn’t it?’ another shake, and the remains of the rodentish creature vanished.
Perrik examined the prone and shocked into silence figure of his Guv’nor, considered the recent events and looked to the familiar, who sat looking at him.
‘Don’t go away,’ he said.
Several ideas were orbiting within his mind, but he thought he had best have a healer of good reputation to see to his Guv’nor. He sent a lad out with a message, extra coins to speed the boy on his way.

Very shortly, the doughty talkative but very expert Mistress Fainsbutton bustled in with her bag of potions, pills, salves and bandages.
‘Oh my young Jek. Your master. I say, what a day it has been,’ being a lady of some build she lifted up Mackveylan, with some aid from Perrik and setting him on a bed examined the stupefied fellow ‘Hmm. Yes, he’ll recover. Anyway. Such events are happening. Apparently that charlatan Humerdin Ganpdu had been gathering a cabal of folk of equally negligible  talent and worth and have been summoning fel creatures that no one thought really existed. It seems they were intent on removing erstwhile folk such as your Master and seize control of the city. And yet it came to naught, the creatures vanished while at the same time the heads of every member of this onerous gang fell off. What do you think of that?’
Perrik Jek looked to the feline form seated casually at the bedroom door, assiduously cleaning its paws.
‘Extraordinary Mistress Fainsbutton. Extraordinary. Now if you see to the Guv’nor I have to go down and tidy up,’
As a matter of experience and pride someone up from the streets should always be aware of opportunities and this day’s revelations to Perrik’s mind were certainly offering up a few.
The feline form followed him down the stairs

‘You’re hired,’ Perrik said to them ‘We’ll sort out terms, conditions and suchwhich later on. Dignified to your status of course,’
‘What about you Guv’nor?’
‘Once I’ve explained to him why I have solved the mystery concerning a particular pound of sausages, he’ll see sense,’

Just Some Reflections On The Week Passed

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As usual over the past week there has been a great deal of news and depending where you live in this world, some events will appear more important than others, and the three I will write about might not understandably matter a jot to you, those closer, literally to your home being of far more importance. Just look upon this then as one person reflecting upon examples of Human reactions, motivations and of course follies. It’s another of those long ruminations though, and a bit convoluted. Bear with me here.

Brian Thompson CEO of United Healthcare
To be honest, chillingly honest maybe, I did not pay much attention to the initial headline, I was skipping quickly to another site, and this just registered as another killing in the USA, a commentary all of it own; the post could have stopped there couldn’t it? A reader could have drawn their own conclusions. Anyway on returning a couple days later the narrative became clearer. The CEO of a controversial but very large USA Healthcare Insurance and ‘provider’. It appears the company has a reputation for finding a way of rejecting or stalling claims.
What was not surprising but worrying nonetheless were the types of reactions. Very little obvious sympathy, much visceral grim humour in messages and one or two cartoons. A great deal of resentment had been building up and in one swift violent act a dam broke. The public reaction garnering its own media attention.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/what-the-murder-of-the-unitedhealthcare-ceo-brian-thompson-means-to-america 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2eeeep0npo

The president to be Trump once boasting about his popularity said he could shoot a person on 5th Avenue and not loose votes. It seems the shooter of Brian Thompson proved that could actually be a case. Yes, and the shooter.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly2zwqqr1ro

An Ivy League graduate from a prominent Maryland family. Those are the facts to date. And why we are not surprised by this link?

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/why-thousands-are-supporting-luigi-mangione-the-suspect-in-unitedhealthcare-ceos-murder-and-fundraising-for-him/articleshow/116155704.cms?from=mdr
Those on the Right and outraged by the killing of a CEO should not be horrified, after all Daniel Perry was crowdfunded.
And here is the stark lesson. Just looking at those two examples in point, the USA. Hate and Prejudice those dire siblings are walking hand in hand. Kill someone who represents a subject of Hate and there will be support, approval, and in some corners encouragement for more of the same. What those supporters seem to miss is that they are encouraging the normalisation of such actions. You don’t like someone prominent or supporters of a movement you detest? Fine just take a gun, or household DIY implement or put together your own IED, you might get caught by The Law, but you’ll have a support base out there. You will not be alone. Even become a hero, no matter how unsettled and skewed your perceptions are. You might die and get martyr status. It’s all cool. Apparently. 

This is something that some of the extreme politicians and those thrice removed from the reality of ordinary life entrepreneurs have missed too. For years now, maybe since Obama’s election, the Anger has been building, and blindness to Rationality growing. The first warning eruption was of course in 2016, then 2021 and now in 2024. Anger fed on frustration, anger fed on triumphalism, anger fed on fear, anger feeding itself. On and on. Trump was nearly a casualty, thankfully not, he does not deserve to be mourned like some hero to the cause. Of course he did not learn the lesson, he continues to make inflammatory statements, adding fuel to the fire and there was Vivek Ramaswamy demonstrating a complete lack of understand how a nation works. Thus in the light of Thompson’s death it has to be asked ‘Who’s Next? Right, Liberal or Activist or Someone briefly in the media highlight?’. A shocking comment I know. Yet in a polarised nation with ‘that many’ guns, is it not valid one to worry about, fear. I do not believe the death of Brian Thompson was any good to anyone. Just spare a thought for his family. This time of year will never be the same for them again. Consequences? There are always consequences.

Anger, pent up, building up. So much rage, it would stifle any Christmas Truce.
You’d have to witnessed it close up, or been reading the runes to truly grasp the potential. 

Syria
(How it links to the above)
Only those who have been following the immensely complicated situation could have given a suggestion that the fall of the Assad regime was close at hand. For most of us the fall of Aleppo was the biggest news and one that would have raised an eyebrow. Thus when I read the newsfeeds on Sunday morning 7.30am UK time it was a shock.  
Now here is the qualified guilty secret. My first reaction was delight at how ridiculous some sections of the UK Left would be held up to account in the light of their previous history of a stance to be against any Western criticism of Assad and that included the courageous White Helmets
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Helmets_(Syrian_civil_war)

If you have been following my blogs you will know of my extreme dislike (putting in mildly) of those sections of the UK Left who come out immediately ‘The West’ (and Israel) does anything, but are or have been at best very muted about other outrages around the world. Even explaining how folk like Putin are justified. I will spare you any further of my outrage at this selective protesting, except to say it devalues any protests they do indulge it.

My problem on Sunday and Monday was containing that emotion. I knew somewhere it was wrong, because there were debates within the UK Left over that ‘selective’ approach in 2011-2015. It was necessary to keep on going over and over the number of militias, para-militaries and even small conventional armies which have growing up, and how just because one was claiming it had the bidding rights for government that was not the end of it. Damascus was not actually seized by the main runner, the Islamist HTS, taken advantage of their advances, the SNA (Syrian National Army) backed by Turkey, these days came up from its stronghold in the south and did a land-grab. Although both sides are now in a tentative slender alliance for the moment. It was necessary to remind myself that Libya and Iraq caste off brutal dictators, the former is still in a civil war and the latter still unsettled. No real cause to cheer.
And yet, and yet, for two days I was mentally mocking the most vocal of the history of the UK Left wing protests movements because I had deemed them to be at best simplistic and naïve and at worse prejudiced and willing saps for the more professionals. Talk about ‘Hate’ and losing perspective I had my own version of the debate on the killing of CEO Brian Thompson going on here. 
Thankfully there was the BBC World Service on hand to supply information from those who had worked on the various front lines, had been faced to face with the horrors and had risked their own lives…..Mind you that strategy had its own problems, because another bunch I have no time for are those who blindly criticise the BBC news outlets because it generally supplies the world news as it is and not how they would like it (It has it’s failings on UK national news, can be a bit tabloid at times), so I was muttering about them.

Summary- Thus Far
It is so easy isn’t it to fall into the reactive approach, to see the other side as blinkered, narrow minded, downright prejudiced and with no perception of Reality, particularly when in their own passions they act just as you expect (or is that…want?) them to. Well of course you are right to feel that way, just look at the way they carry on. 
There’s something wrong there, but there’s no satisfaction in admitting it, if they are opposition, then they deserve all you are saying about them, every single one of them.
I think? 
But I can say that because I am very broad minded in my condemnation, be they Right or Left. Or Cancel Culture, or Objecting to Cancel Culture. Or whatever.

Hate. Intolerance. Sneaky little blighters are they not?

There’s most certainly something wrong these days. Less tolerance. More polarisation. So easy to just hit the old keyboard, rattle away and press ‘send’ Just where is the dividing line between Honest Opposition or Justifiable Outrage and the simply urge to give way to the delicious thrill of ‘venting’ blind anger (Who me? Prejudiced? Most certainly not. It’s just that Some people….)

Oh yes there are those feeding off it all the time, growing rich and famous. Trouble is, they had better watch their back… Those who live by the sword, as it were

A Footnote, and a Warning To Some
We’ve all heard of trolls of course. Onerous, pathetic folk mostly. And yet in this frenetic social media world, high-profile world, some have figured out a way to make use of  Troll-anger by deliberately prodding them through triggering their intense dislike of anyone with a high and arguably self-congratulatory profile. Or if not Trolls, selecting the triggers which upset people. Check this, it’s called Rage-Baiting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gp555xy5ro

Yes, I know, worrying isn’t it? There is one thing these trigger-merchants might have overlooked. They have high profiles, they are well-known to internet users and they are upsetting a lot of folk. They might want to pause as we come around in a very wide circle and they might wish to consider the fate of Brian Thompson. And the social reaction.

Conclusion

By now we should be in the season of Cheer, Goodwill and smiling a lot at strangers….At leastways that was how we felt it should have been. And yet now we are facing the consistently ugly side of Humanity (as advertised on TV and The Internet) how do we put the blood red genie back in the bottle?

When the Weight Falls On You (Pre and Post Election USA)

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Lost

Following my previous post

A Spectre to be Exorcised (Communal Violence)- A Repeated from 2022

My good and dear Friend Jill nudged me into this based on the extract It may be too late to do anything about what might happen in the USA on and after the 5th of November 2024, and the subsequent ramifications across the world- for you are one of three largest and most globally influential nation states. Jill asked me to look into my ideas as to what that might entail.

Foreword
It has almost become a convention in the lesser books of Military History and certainly useful for the hero in many an action thriller to use the phrase ‘No Plan Survives Contact With The Enemy’. Whereas it may be getting stale in those contexts the meaning behind it remains a bleak warning as to Uncertainty.
The sentiments behind that phrase can be carried forward into a complete overhaul of the words into ‘No Action’s Full Consequences Can Be Predicted’. This can be carried into all manner of life choices- a rich theme for films and books as in the 1998 film ‘Sliding Doors’ , though when this moves into the area World Politics, the myriads of players and the variable circumstances the possibilities are numerous and more than a few ominous.
Sometimes these start with seemingly small local events – The Assassination of Archduke Ferdinand on 28th June 1914 was initially seen in diplomatic circles as a local event, a Hapsburg problem by the 28th July 1914 but a lighted match had been dropped in a tinder dry forest; World War One had started. Sometimes the event can be of the Last Straw type. The Invasion by Germany into Poland on the 1st September 1939 being an example. Others times to march to complete catastrophe is not inevitable such as The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962. While others lurk in the shadows of earlier histories: The Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916 between France and Britain was a plan to divide up the Ottoman Empire after World War One and avoid ‘unpleasantness’ between the two – it is a major factor in all Middle East conflicts post 1945.

The following is based on that premise, but I must stress there are no solid predictions here, that would be folly and conceit; herein are conjectures which may happen yet in turn have their own ramifications distant in the murk of International Politics and Internal Dynamics. The reason my writing it is to demonstrate that there is nothing ‘business as usual’ about this American Presidential Election of 2024, for whether a reader likes it or not what happens in the USA, a vast nation with large resources and a myriad of political and diplomatic links will have ramifications in the world as a whole. When large nations move, the rest of the world feels it. Yes, I know you Dear Reader did not ask for this. Circumstances, though.

21st Century and the USA
Currently the USA exists in a world beset by major and inescapable factors. The Russo- Ukrainian War; the replacement of Communist Revolutionary movements with the return of Aggressive forms of Islam as political-military factors; the revitalised China using both commerce and military forces as a means to ensure its continuation as a major power; the unavoidable fact that the Climate is altering due to Human activity. All set against a backdrop of Human unfocused dissatisfaction. In this, the USA to the outside once a seeming monolith able to navigate internal upheavals and yet remain dominant.

To proceed we must start from a base of a prediction that the USA has indeed become a place of communal violence. The mass shootings by disturbed individuals have been replaced by targeted violence through gun, bomb, IED and riots masked as demonstrations. Politicians, commentators, celebrities, campaigners of all stripes are amongst the casualties. This naturally has the following effects:


An extra pressure of resources of internal security forces and an uncertainty on the political loyalty of individuals.
An accelerated greater polarisation of politics at all levels.
A general diminution of confidence in the USA as a partner and in those competitors encouragement to take greater advantage of the situation.

It is in the latter of the three for the purpose of this post we need to focus.

Directly and open hostile groups or nations would be drawn to interfere in this. As examples Russia and its allies are already supporting the Right even a modest increase in support through finance or internet activity would be seen to pay dividends. Islamic groups or possibly Iran would do likewise by playing on the fears of native American Muslims, subject to hostility, an ideal time to plague ‘Great Satan’, though this would likely have another knock on effect into that Gulf State governments and Israel would enter the scene in a very complicated game. And of course where there is chaos and suffering Criminal Elements would seek to profit, the opportunities would be myriad, particularly as they could operate under the guise of a political affiliation.
In addition to the opportunism of direct intervention would be the temptation of other nations to take advantage of American distraction, weakening of abilities and lack of focus.
The survival of Ukraine in its current form would be the first. Should Russia prevail and bring the country to heel, the Baltic states, Finland and Scandinavian nations would be among the first, to take action along with smaller border nations such as Georgia and Moldavia. The rest of Europe would then face possibilities of uniting without the USA, or fracturing in pro and anti-Russian lines. Uncertainty not seen since the early days of the 1950s would return. The UK would likely experience an increase in drawing closer to Europe again, although the anti-American pro-Moscow forces would make a fuss.
Whereas China would prefer a certain amount of stability as it moves along a commercial path to world domination, a USA distracted would increase its desire to bring South East Asia and a large regions of the Pacific under its domination. Taiwan and Philippines being current targets of low key aggression, and Pacific island states soft power.
The USA in terms of material resources has little in the African Continent in the North, The Sahel and the Sub-Saharan nations. As France appears to be on twin paths of rejection and ejection a gradual redrawing is taking place. Russia’s return under the guise of Wagner private army. China’s persistence now with its Belt and Road Initiative. Islamic groupings based on local dissatisfactions. You could be forgiven for wondering if despite a great deal of effort by African nations that nothing changed since the 19th Century ‘Scramble for Africa’ then between Britain and France.
That most unhappy region The Middle East often a victim of US intervention, sometimes well-meaning brokerage would find it would be business as usual, with a US Right encouraging Israel to continue in its wars. However matters are far more complex than Israel vs Hamas / Hezbollah, behind this run struggles between Saudi Arabia and allied nations and Iran recently played out in Yemen. The permutations and possibilities here could fill a series of weekly posts that might make up double figures into the twenties and would then only scratch the surface.

And those are only a few examples. To elaborate on the theme of lack of US influence. Many situations are already running with scant attention by the players to what the USA thinks. There lies India and Pakistan’s continuous conflicts direct or by proxy. In Myanmar the internal struggles against the Military are practically supported by a Crowd Funding system, and far beneath the attention of the nearly the entire Western Activist / Protest movements never mind US policy. There are also myriad of struggles by minority communities through the world. Meanwhile aside from the forays by the main media, yes I am talking about the BBC here, who outside of the UN cares about Sudan? Look into any of those and you’ll get a general idea of what goes on outside of US main policy and how that could be extended if the USA continues to turn inwards on its polarising internal conflicts.

USA- Sorry Folks But It Is An Important Nation
It is a commonalty to find items around the net either blaming the USA for all the world’s ill, or from Americans in angst over how terrible their nation has been. If we take the unarguable fact that no nation or peoples in the long track of history ever have a clean record, then the USA takes its place. However whatever you care to throw at the USA, there will be parallels and far worse in the Past and in The Present. As far as International Politics and History are concerned no one gets a free pass.

This said, the USA being a very big nation, which in the aftermath of WWII was the one stable giant which inherited either by intent or more likely by default a world defining role. This makes that Nation also by default in the eyes of the world The Main Villain, irrespective of what others are up to. Britain, France and Spain to name a few went through it. China and Russia seem to have some undefinable quality never to completely decline and keep coming back, though for some reasons there are always folk willing to make excuses for them; without living within their borders that is. Nonetheless the USA has until recently maintained a solid role of ‘Being There’, a constant unified democracy (bear in mind that the latter word is a moveable and variable term). Take that away and the world becomes a very different place. Add on to that an unsettled and conflicted USA and other nations will see opportunities to ‘buy up bits on the cheap’ either in terms of land, businesses or members of the ruling classes. China and India could tell you a tale or too there. Nations no matter how big do decline.

Of course there is one final issue to consider, some large nations have not gone quietly, they have thrashed out trying to maintain their influence. A bedevilled and internally frustrated USA could well react very quickly and heavily if China did try and take Taiwan. One US government having a very bad day, might decide that Russia really has been getting thing too much its own way; the latter might come as a result of a purge of folk seen having had a history of being too friendly to Russia. When a nation becomes unstable, you cannot tell, which way anyone in government might go. Export the problem, either by design or default. The very big issue here being that very large arsenal of nuclear weapons. By some miracle the decline of the USSR did not result in new small nations playing with the weaponry. Luckily in the USA governors do not have access to nuclear codes. That said instability and a nuclear arsenal are a worrying combination.

Upon the Shoulders This Weighs

Therefore, by another default and most of you did not ask for this in any shape or form, but The World will be watching for the result of the Presidential Election with more than just a passing and deeply invested interest. There will be some holding of breaths, some sleepless nights, some pacing of floors, all depending on the time zone. We know from the last election there are folk some infused with toxic egos or a complete break with Reality who have lost any sense of maturity and responsibility and will over-react no matter what the result. The days of shrugging the shoulders and saying ‘Well it won’t be my fault when things go wrong’ or ‘That’s it. The country is done for! Where’s the remote? I’m gonna watch……..’ they are long gone.

It is too late to influence the result. That is now to be seen. What waits on the horizon is how to deal with the result, how to manage it and repair within the USA a return to stability and rationality. There is the challenge. For you, as an individual. The world waits.

Unfair isn’t it? You didn’t sign up for this. You have my sympathies. For we all bear some responsibility even in microscopic form for the ills of the World. It just so happens folk in the USA have been burdened with a larger piece than most.

A Spectre to be Exorcised (Communal Violence)- A Repeated from 2022

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Uncle Sam

I Am Looking To You To Do Your Patriotic Duty

Precursor: I originally wrote this post on the 8th May 2022. It featured in another blog of mine where I deal with grim subjects – The World As It Is. Not As It Should Be. Now it seems that WP’s response to my posting a recent link to this post has result in WP saying it cannot find it….. Ah well, let us not get diverted in the various whimsies that are WP’s speciality.

Thus here is a Copy & Paste of that post is here for your consideration. It may be too late to do anything about what might happen in the USA on and after the 5th of November 2024, and the subsequent ramifications across the world- for you are one of three largest and most globally influential nation states. Instead think of this as either a warning to keep to the legal and civil side of resistance against the tide of Ignorance, Hate and Falsehoods, or worst case a preparation for Discord.

Foreword

This post has to be long. Histories have to be considered. Social tides and trends examined. That most troublesome of all factors Human Nature faced. It is hoped you find this grim reading, but not sensationalist. This is a precursor for you to discuss in your homes, your blogs, your meeting places. These words are based on histories of communal violence throughout the world. Including the USA. I have tried to be apolitical, most of the time. It is not always possible. Blame has to be laid in places.

Introduction

The present view that so politically polarised the USA has become, a civil war could take place has moved from blog site discussion onto the mainstream where more sober assessments are. For example:

Brookings in the following assessment of September 2021 concluded there was a sizeable proportion of the USA population who were of this mindset:

Is the US headed for another Civil War? (brookings.edu)

In January of 2022 an article in the UK Guardian raised this possibility along the lines of the UK’s own experience in Ulster

Is the US really heading for a second civil war? | US politics | The Guardian

Overview

It should be borne in mind that Racism, Intolerance, Profiling and Subjugation  are regrettably part of the Human Construct. No race, people, community, grouping, belief system have been free of it. So it is within the USA.

Although legislation and more constructive outlooks made moves to minimise the effects of these corrosions it requires a mammoth task of social engineering to purge them. Something which would challenge even the most efficient and established of authoritarian states.

Thus not the passing phase of the 1960s counter-culture whose short tenure could reduce it to arguably a fashion. Instead it was in the deep-rooted places of a Human Insecurity in sections of The White Community fed by the fear of loss of position in society where the nascent rebellions would grow.

The US involvement in Vietnam with a cost of wasted blood and treasure, left on one side a sense of worthless loss, on the other an anger at some sort of betrayal at home; possibly the first cultural fracture line in The White Community; the dominant group within the USA. These would be played out in the Culture Wars. Not enough attention being given to the mindset which gave rise to the Oklahoma City Bombing of 19th April 1995; this was the warning.

Then in the opening years of the 21st Century came two tipping points:

9/11 and the election of an African American into the Whitehouse, twice with majorities. The former had shaken America and set loose more of those toxic fantasies Conspiracy Theories, for the long term trust in government of the USA as dangerous as any handgun. In the case of the latter, the fact he was a Democrat made the backlash easier for one element of the White Community. Had Colin Powell or Condoleezza Rice accepted a Eisenhower type draft and won, the Republican Party and Fundamentalist Right would have suffered a truly existential crisis. But they had a black democrat. This made everything much easier.

Civil Discord (The Path to Communal Violence)

It is now necessary to move from the historical to consider the dynamics of civil discord  which lead to a break down in the common currency of discourse, bargaining, and the tacit, sometimes humorous acceptance of tribal lines.

Firstly the notion that ‘There is no Democracy’ has to be put aside, for people are able within the USA take to  the streets, the airwaves, the internet to give voice to their feelings. Thus there is freedom of speech and action, however in an atmosphere of heightened feeling this freedom comes with  tensions and reactions. The first tension arises when people feel their views are not being listened to, or being stifled. The second tension arises when those frustrations are inflamed by the feeling ‘The Other Side’ are not just ignoring, but are seen to be imposing. At this point there occurs a fault line when a shared perception results in ‘The Other Side’ being seen as a threat and there can be no discourse, the only facet shared by both sides being this mindset. At this stage both sides will feel the need to demonstrate, one will feel it is defending, the other will perceive this as aggression, engendered through the fault line affect. Initially it will be seen one side is more aggressive and assertive thus encourage within them a certain sense of triumphalism. This adds to the danger as in playing to its own support it fails to take into account that the very forces which placed it in this position will also work within the opposition. There is made a fundamental error that the triumphant side  can use Democracy and the Other Side will adhere to that rule. In addition some of its more strident supporters will feel the leaders are not strong enough and perceive the need to be ready to defend or if necessary attack with unconstitutional force. The stance sets within The Other Side the feeling they had better prepare. You need only scroll the internet to see that the ridiculously named ‘Snowflakes’ have been starting to own guns.

2016 to Today

To support my views in the previous section it is necessary to consider the last two presidential elections. In 2016 the victory went not to the candidate with the most votes but the electoral college votes. Thus from Day One the losing side felt robbed. A more astute winner in 2016 would have sensed the issue and navigated. By 2016 this was not wanted by the winning side and the other side were willing to take up the fight. By 2020 the lack of discourse had reached such a pitch that the losers of that election believed they had the right to seize back power because of a fraudulent election. This theme continues even now as a backdrop in the 2024 election.

The Republican Reaction as seen from The Other Side

Although cast out of the Whitehouse and seeming to fail in the courts of law, aside from the Supreme Court, the political machines now holding control of the Republican Party have been working at a pace to unravel the social, legal and communal trends of the past 50 years as they seek to defend their own ground. Instead of the usual slow, methodical  approach in this heightened tension they have sought to dismantle the processes of The History of Race Relations, Sexual Orientation and Abortion with no effort in trying to convince the opposition of their causes, they pass a simple edict. As they see it, this was done to them, it is now time to undo it. This is against the wishes of the Executive branch, the Whitehouse. Another layer of  confrontation therefore plays into the dynamic of continuing Civil Discord. In both cases ‘The Other Side’ are a threat.

Update: As it will have been noted in the schools, against the Abortion Clinics, the LGBT+ community and the refugees, the Right has seen fit not to use the politics of reasoned argument but of extreme language. Which is turn has resulted in similar response. Thus rather than try to calm down the situation, the temperature has increased so by this year 2024 the polarisation is wider.

The Acceleration of Civil Discord

In this frenetic atmosphere attention must be given to the structure of the USA at federal level. In use of the three office system: Executive (The Whitehouse). The Legislature (Congress/Senate) and Judiciary (Supreme Court) mirrored at State Level it was believed enough checks and balances had been built in. However with Conspiracy as deadly to the body politic as Covid to the population; dismay raised to horror by one group or another at the result of the last four presidential elections, the legislature abrogating its traditional and beneficial wheeler-dealing to consensus and the Supreme Court no longer perceived as a body above The Common Brawl another layer of toxicity has arisen. Belief that the system is no longer working. Either dread for the future, anger at The Other Side,  grim preparation to defend the home becomes a norm, or violent intention to impose The Will of Our Side(s).

The Tipping Point into Communal Violence

One action leading to a sudden call to or inexorable slide to fully conventionally armed groups is not how this will start. In a nation nearly inured to gun crime you might even miss the start; another shooting, unless of course it is between two groups. The next tranche of violent confrontations, would be by the bombs,  IEDs, the murder of prominent activists or journalists, politicians and any combination. These will be the signals the Tipping Point has been reached. This will lead to the ‘No Go Areas’, the latter being underscored by some very unwise incursion by one group into another and the subsequent ambush. It would appear police are already experiencing these; the next step in this will be the targeting of individual officers. From here will come the targeting of official buildings of government, of one party or another, and then for some twisted thought process a hospital, parents might well start to keep children away from school, seeing the history of school killings this would hardly be surprising.

In this atmosphere although groups will be surveyed, there will be the under the radar individuals for each person has their own tipping point. In recent years I have read the remarks of avid anti-war believers and pro-gun control supporters intimating or outright suggest a violent response is a feasible solution. You will never know when the normally placid person will take a gun with the specific purpose of solving a problem, or the group who decided to investigate how to make bombs, because they’ve been pushed too far. Of course each of these actions will bring the reaction.

The Institutionalisation of Violence

One fatalistic view is, considering the level of gun crime, this state is already in place. However the level can become more intense, once armed groups with names and agenda become seen by one community or another as legitimate alternative police or local guard. There is another level though, this being when the group imposes upon the community a code of behaviour and underground tax to support them, the tax does not have a right of appeal either. With this comes disputes within the group and rivalries with other groups. Hardened now by violence and fuelled by suspicion the violent solution is seen as the norm. And of course wherever there is chaos and violence goes crime, gangs would quite naturally seek to impose their own will either to take over a group or keep a group out of their activities. Those who felt it was only necessary to parade in paramilitary style in a threatening way will find themselves quite out of their depths as a fearful natural selection takes place.

The Official Response.

This is where matters are not so predictable. The National Guard would of course be called in to areas where the police are losing control. Being in a local part-time force with local affiliation it has to be assumed that members or groups within the guard will have sympathies, or feel a certain intimidation. Direct and open large scale mutinies would be very unlikely but expecting all The Guard to be a faceless, emotionless unified body acting only for the defence of Stability and safety of all is naïve, there will be fractures.

The Security Services be they Police, FBI, NSA etc would face the same pressures from within. Also they being closer to the body politic and the civil viewpoint would be in the position of doing deals or reaching accords with whichever group or groups they feel they can work with. In all civil discord this is an ugly fact. Whether in a federal system such as the USA this would be a uniform approach is again highly unlikely.

Whether or not the Armed Forces become involved would depend on whether the nation is still governable as a working state comparable with the pre-violent situation:

“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God.”  Is open to interpretations, if some decide ‘The President’ is not legally ‘The President’. One thing would be certain, the element of internal security and supervision of members of the armed forces would be increased. Forget Conspiracies. Think of Factionalism.

The Resulting Political Overview

In this area prediction is near impossible, as a great deal would depend on the strength of character of individuals around which groups marshal. There are many possibilities. One of the least worst outcomes would be the fragmentation of the current USA into states which have autonomy. Washington, The Whitehouse and Capitol Hill being reduced to places of symbolism and the possible headquarters of Americanised versions of The EU and NATO, in an attempt to shore up America from outside influences while making workable the large armed forces and corporation based trading systems onto the world stage. How workable this would be is beyond the scope of this post.

Conclusion

Whereas The Ulster Conflict was conducted under a higher level of government the situation in the USA has the potential to reach up to the highest levels as already demonstrated and this is a most distressing situation. Thus what can a US citizen fearful for this scenario do? My suggestion is to voice your concerns, not in a partisan way from your own standpoint but as an appeal to stop this slide. Raise this spectre which everyday seems to draw an inch nearer. Demand of your representatives a return to consensus. Warn them, that they in the final analysis in any failure to bring discourse and consensus to the issues; that they in pandering to, or failing to confront the extremist levels will be complicit in the deaths of their fellow citizens. Raise this in conversation. Not as a warning to prepare, but as a concern as to what might come. The concern must become a talking point in the run up to the next elections. The violent minorities must be marginalised and the conspiracies put back in the toy box.

An Update in Late October 2024

A Formulaic View of The Acceleration of Civic Discord

Regrettably what passes as rhetoric by the republican candidate and his running mate suggests that neither have much concern about what effect they are having on any opposition, in that they are playing only to their own and on the fears of the undecided. They are therefore playing with matches in a forest in a high summer’s drought. And the groups feeling the subject of hate and discrimination I will repeat this formulae for you based on a possibility of the result of the presidential election, itself based on current polls:

160 million votes cast
Trump wins by 82 millions to 78 million. That’s 78,000,000 folk upset about the result.
10% are very, very angry . That’s 7,800,000 angry folk.
10% of that 7,800,000 are so angry they feel their way of Life and Democracy is seriously threatened, the feeling parallel to if the nation was invaded. That’s 780,000.
1% of the 780,000 feel the new administration and its supporters in the states are now viable targets. That’s 7,800. A very small number, but how many of the others tucked away the previous number have a sympathy that ‘does not yet speak it’s name,’ .
The 7,800 start to go public and as stated above with it make those inflammatory statements and acts. A similar reaction arises within the ranks of the supporters of Trump.

And so it begins. Not ranks as in the Civil War, but the covert groups as we in the UK saw in Northern Ireland, no central control, agendas within agendas and legal access to so many guns.

Violence be it is war or communal discord contains its own grim logic and thus inevitability.

Take heed. But look not to the gun. Look to Democracy while it still gasps for breath. Look to the Law. Look to the Passive Civil Disobedience. Cling to and nurture Hope. Never give up. Support the Persecuted. Speak with those who are only broadly conservative. Defy The Hate-Mongers. Convince or Warn the Uncertain. Keep on.

Prove my unhappy words to be just written out of Fear and not out of Histories.

Pro-Life. Let’s Think That Through. Shall We?… Part II. The Case Against USA Legislation. A Walk Down Harsh Reality Lane

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Dream Scape (2)

Forewarning: Since we will dealing with topics which are linked directly to sexual activity there will naturally be comments with adult themes, do not think any of them were made humorously. I am serious here. Additionally this post is directed in the main to the current situation in the USA. Because of the potential complexities and dangers inheritant in the subject this will be a long post, maybe 2,000+ words.

Introduction
Part I’s narrative arguably didn’t run in a truly linear fashion, it had to cover linked issues and might have seem to some a bit jagged.
Pro-Life. Let’s Think That Through. Shall We?… Part I- The Happy Bunny World of A Pro-Life Solution and a Handful of Hypocrisies Along The Way.
The intention of this post is to challenge the attempt to legislate Abortion out of The USA and the ramifications of such a policy. I will endeavour to minimise the emotional aspects of the issue while taking a three-themed approach. These will be from an administrative perspective, the perspective of moral consistency and finally the question of hypocrisy.

Overview
Once more let us be adult about this fact. Down our history a great deal human endeavour has been directed to the subject of Sexual Activity, and whereas this in itself has shown to be a topic with many variations, the one act which can lead to Conception seems to have the majority. Therefore allied to the fact that despite wars, plagues and the prices of living on a dynamic planet the population has grown and grown we must therefore consider Conception and the path to birth, or the avoidance of both as very major issues. And like many other Human practical issues such as War, Poverty, Co-Operation, Economics, Environmental Responsibility, Human Rights, Famine and Intolerance -to name but a few of the major ones, can not be one which can be addressed by a simple legalistic snap of the fingers. For the very simple reason which has frustrated, even foiled law-makers down the ages; the variable intransigences of Human Nature. To paraphrase Lincoln ‘You can’t control all of the people, all of the time,’. On that basis, legislation which does not have the common ethical consent of the far greater percentage of the population will not only fail in its intentions but will have adverse reactions leading to other societal problems.

Legislation and Implications

Theory
Whereas it can be argued that the US constitution does not guarantee a woman’s right to an abortion neither does it expressly forbid abortion. Since the Supreme Court overturning of the Roe vs Wade decision, this has been left to the various states to form their own legislative policies.
Legislation: One definition –A law or set of laws suggested by a government and made official.
All laws have elements of acceptance and support living side by side with controversy and unpopularity. In the case of the latter, the degrees of which vary between ‘tutting’ about them to outright opposition either of a political, social or criminal response. Humanity does not fall into complete step just because one person or group says so; in Kim Jung Un’s extremely autocratic North Korea there are dark corners of crime, and elsewhere very quiet opposition. Ninety Eighty Four is a fiction, no matter how hard O’Brien and The Thought Police try.

Legislation and The USA
From the very conception (deliberate irony) of the nation. The USA, a term adopted by the Second Continental Congress on July 4, 1776, in the Declaration of Independence as the first official document to use the title, has not been a truly united all in one step nation. This is not unique, but the populations of the USA down the few brief centuries of its life have shown a tendency to question, if not downright defy central authority; from Senate and Congress down to a few folk on a street in a small town. No president can ever claim to have the same, albeit transitory authority, as say a British Prime Minister. A president’s tenure on the internal stage is at best one of constant negotiation with a layer of infuriation at stubborn movements who will cite parts of the constitution or take to arm-twisting representatives on Capitol Hill, and of course the various layers of courts through states upwards. Also it has to be said, from an outsider’s perspective, in some last resort cases the matters are still settled through the use of firearms; a facet which it could be said with some weight of evidence being the USA’s common religion- bear that in mind for latter.

It follows therefore that in a federation of states with folk who see independence as a natural right, when a piece of legislation is based only on the efforts of one motivated group and contains an elements of imposition of the will of the State upon the whole population, there will not be a wholly passive response. There will be agitation, hostility and resistance; in various forms.

Resistance and Circumventions
The first one which springs to mind in this instance is The Criminal, for it is another fact of Humanity, if an authority bans or proscribes something then you can be be certain that somewhere along the way those of a Criminal Mind will seek to make coin out of it. Need you have to been reminded on the era of Prohibition, the rise of Organised Crime, the institutionalised breaking of law because suddenly a majority of folk became law-breakers? Crime is a very inventive and restless entity always looking for new opportunities, particularly in the supplying of ‘services’ to ‘the consumer’ restricted by the State. In this case the Desperation of an individual or a couple makes ‘the consumer’ a very easy ‘mark’. The unregulated services supplied would be very variable in quality. In such a situation the very illegality of Abortion leaves those who use the Criminal Network no recourse to litigation if anything goes wrong, nor even a willingness to seek hospital care. As a conclusion to this, the larger cartels ever ready to branch out would seek those with experience, irrespective of their true capabilities and the possibility of ‘underground clinics’ with the veneer of care could be arranged for a ‘small’ initial investment. The final word, is that once Crime has its hooks into someone it can be difficult to walk away. Extortion, blackmail, even ‘recruitment’ into their networks become dangers for those who use their services. And as is often the case violence between suppliers is very likely, unhappy the user caught up in that side.

Running parallel with criminal enterprises would of course be those motivated by political and allied beliefs. Aside from the underlying profit and exploitative motives the ‘underground’ aspect would be similar, as to the variability of services. Since the motivation here be argued as ethical there may be some level of aftercare and concern for the woman; however without the safety of legality for both provider and user they both tread on difficult ground. Not only do they run the risk of discovery by the State, but also by aggressive pro-life groups and criminal organisations who do not care for ‘do-gooders’ stepping on their turf. A dangerous business for all, for unlike the Criminal side they cannot resort to violence or corruption to ease the process along.

As another aspect to the ‘underground’ would be the revival of the ‘underground railroad’ of the Slavery Era  in this case with sundered networks engaged in aiding women to travel to locations where abortion is still legal. A great deal of subterfuge would be required and most likely be available only to women in the earliest stages of pregnancy when physical evidence is not there. Nonetheless the fear of suspicion, discovery and unfounded accusations would permeate society and inject another layer of unease in an already polarised society.

Amongst these would also run the market for various morning-after concoctions, ranging from smuggling in drugs from areas where their use is legal to those manufactured without regulation. Again without the projection of legality the user is very much at risk. You need only scroll through the internet for tragedies resulting from the use of  slimming drugs purchased on line to see where the danger could arise.

Finally this would be another burden to the already greatly pressured law enforcement agencies, distracting their efforts from drug and human trafficking, and the myriad of other unarguably vile crimes being enacted. Overall then the lessons of Prohibition have been forgotten.

The Question of Moral Consistency

The most glaring inconsistency would be the current controlling faction of the Republican Party’s twin stances on Gun Control and Abortion; an aspect which has been commented many times but bears repeating. If they are so concerned about The Child, then why do they allow easy access to devices which kill? The idea that abortion is murder is somewhat devalued by their allowing mechanical devices of murder to proliferate. One standard response to mass killings is ‘Now Is Not The Time To Have This Debate’, presumably this means everyone is too emotional to be objective. And yet Abortion which is a very emotional issue does not have this ‘treatment’. They can play the numbers game by citing abortions were running at between 800,000 to 900,000 per year, as opposed to homicide deaths of only 20,000+ a year. This however falls down at the ethical level when suggesting that 20,000 involuntary killings by firearms is an acceptable figure for their ‘freedom’.  
Dwelling on that topic of 800,000 to 900,000. Forgive me for sounding chillingly bureaucratic on this matter, but do the Pro-Life organisations have plans to ensure that this extra number of children will be born into a society which provides sufficient health care, housing and educational needs? It is no use them saying this is up to the parents when they limit a couples choice on the subject of the birth of children.
And there is the matter of a  grouping which goes on at great length about a person’s choice being limited by government while being willing to install very strict laws on a person’s choice whether to continue with a pregnancy. 

Let the record show, by the way I am personally unhappy that there have had to have been 800,000 to 900,000 abortions per year in the USA, a matter I covered in the previous post.

Hypocrisy and Agendas
I have in some measure dwelt on the question of Hypocrisy through the Gun Control Debate, thus there is no need to repeat the point. Therefore for brevity’s sake I will turn to agendas.

The perceived driving force of the current dominating grouping with The Republican Party and its allied associations is essentially revisionist.  The current picture it presents to the public is one of unconditional rolling back of all changes made in social development without any room for debate on the challenges. In this it targets the liberals or as it inaccurately refers to as Socialists (the ignorance of socialism on the American Right might be laughable in other eras). Aside from minorities, another group it aims to put in ‘its place’ are Women. It is a complex approach, because there are many women in its ranks, but basically Women can be Women as much as they like but on Male and Fundamentalist terms. Hence those women who are pro-choice are to be vilified and essentially caged. Whereas those who are Pro-Life can indulge in the most ludicrous Conspiracy Junk, carry around firearms and dismantle the social support systems built by previous governments to their hearts’ content.

Pro-Life therefore is merely one part of a drive to seek out some Past which has never been. Where everyone will be apparently wholesome, heterosexual, go to church and contribute unequivocally to the community, in which everyone of all races will know their place. The idea being very much like those cosy TV shows of the 1950s and early 1960s. To achieve this there would limiting choice, imposition of a surveillance state with powers of censorship and travel control aided by a wide spread of new laws stating what was now illegal. In short ‘Liberty’ for one group and not all of society. As we can see with the legislation passed in some states on Abortion, pressure on the education system, societal pressure on families outside of the norm, questionable changes in the voting boundaries and arrangements this is already in place. All under the guise of protecting the ‘liberties’ , but only of certain groups.

Call it an attempted soft coup if you like.

Amongst all of this drive to limitation you can depend on one factor of Human Weakness. No doubt there are Pro-Life campaigners who have had some degree of experience of Abortion and have had a change of heart, nothing new there, just so long as they are open about it. However there will be the other side, those who are Pro-Life, but at some stage will decide in their particular case, involvement with Abortion was necessary, but not to be made public and they will continue as publicly Pro-Life. ‘In our case there are particular circumstances’ a common recourse down the ages on many subjects. And predictable.

Conclusion

Whereas this drive to the making of Abortion illegal across a nation is possible, of course possible given the way voting patterns go. Whether this law would be wholesomely workable and lead to a better and enriched society is very doubtful. To be very generous in my conclusion I will fall back on the old adage:

The Road To Hell Is Paved With Good Intentions

Pro-Life. Let’s Think That Through. Shall We?… Part I- The Happy Bunny World of A Pro-Life Solution and a Handful of Hypocrisies Along The Way.

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Woman's Choice

Foreword: When I started thinking about this post it was obvious the whole writing was going to be long and difficult not to sway from one aspect to another, also trying to avoid putting my male-assumption foot into it. So this will take two parts. First one. here now, a general overview as I see it about Abortion and Contraception. The next post, the likelihood of what will happen if there was a federal ban on abortion.

On with the first then, I will try and keep a straight line in the narrative, but since this is a very complex subject there might be some drift because we must consider a certain theme of subjugation of women (Oh yeah. Oh yeah – read on)

A couple in consensual intimacy. Conception of a new life, starting at the unimaginably small, in mammalian terms designed to grow inside of the mother until the time of birth. In the ideal world of How We Would Wish, a beautiful notion.

But Reality in its myriad forms does not subscribe to How We Would Wish. We can craft perfection in our imaginations and in our arts.  Or we can lament at the harshness of Reality until we are worn out, angry or despairing that even the most deserving of cases do not always have the ever elusive Happy Ending or Perfect Solution. Thus it should be evident that the acts of Conception, Pregnancy, Birth and Post-Natal, Child upbringing all have their own set of dangers and tragedies. Like everything else in Life – not simple – not unconditionally joyous – not carefree. And above all- not solvable by legislation based on one side of one theistic culture.

Personally I am unsettled by Abortion. Let the record show I am not unconditionally supportive of Abortion. Nor am I supportive of unconditional Free Speech or Liberty to Protest. There is a big difference though. In the former case it is an individual and personal matter, in the latter two cases I can think of several good reasons for legal restrictions. (I don’t mess around with my idea of Socialism! ) But let us return to the issue of Abortion and pick apart my Male Ideal World notions.
In my M.I.W, women who find themselves pregnant not by design would be giving full and compassionate support through the pregnancy and after the birth work with trained and fully staffed professional agencies and couples seeking to adopt all to find the baby a lovely home. Great, Yeah?. Except in Reality not all pregnancies go smoothly, some families have an inherited genetic problem, some women have underlying conditions which make full term pregnancies a risk. And we have the issue of a woman going full term, bonding with that child and the possible unforeseen psychologically painful aftermath of parting with the child. AND of course since men don’t have to go through the labour process with its inherent risks….easy for me, a man, to come up with a Sunshine and Lollipops solution. Yes, there are women who have made this choice and there are surrogate mothers. However to restrict a woman’s right to abortion just because this suggestion seems a ‘nicer, happier, Hallmark Film ending’ does not mean every pregnancy and birth will seamlessly navigate thus. File this solution away in the very Grey Area of Personal Ideal Ideas.

Now with a slight deviation off of the subject of Abortion I am going to sound off and if male readers don’t like what I am about to write…gee …too bad guys, think of this world from the women’s side.

Why is it that women are expected to jump through hoops when it comes to Contraception  and Birth Control (I can recall a time when Abortion was filed under BC as an option)? Mess with a woman’s hormonal cycle (Pill), shove bits of plastic or ‘stuff’ up their delicate parts (Barrier Methods), induce early miscarriage (Morning After Pills)…Then back to Abortion (in this case the male ‘Get Rid of It’ response). No trouble, all quick and clean guys. Not your problems. Not your problems?? We got condoms (if we remembered where they were, had time to fit them, had a good brand) – what more should we do? ‘Oh not that Vasectomy…Too permanent, and anyway I’ve heard…blah-blah…..Natural methods? Wassat? That’s a Catholic Thing isn’t it? They have big families, so it don’t work anyhow.’ No leave it all up to the woman to bear all the heavy loads, all the messing about with their bodies. Heavens forefend that our most precious parts should be meddled with.
So basically women have to go through all the invasive issues, because they have been told that there are no other options, and gosh, it doesn’t seem there is a truly marketable male contraceptive, although I believe the polite excuse is workable. Now call me a grumpy old geezer who doesn’t know anything about this scientific implications or processes; not that I’ll listen. The reason being, all the aforementioned efforts have been gone into being invasive with women’s bodies but not much on men’s. In these days of ‘advances’ in medical science? Seriously? Do I just detect an underlying sub-text of reluctance to put more effort into the subject.

Respect women guys. Their lives are filled with issues which would put you off your mid-day snack? (Don’t worry I’m not going to mention ‘that’ subject) . And I’m just dealing with ‘The Western World’.

Western World? Of course one of the problems in the USA would be a most singular alliance. Aside from The Catholic Church’s teaching on the basis of the most tenuous of thin alleged biblical instruction opposition and cruel refusal to administer Communion to those not in step, (Catholic writing here by the way) we have some loud and agressive Funde-mental-ist Right section of conservative thought and goodness knows what they’ve selected out of context from Genesis, Leviticus and St Paul to suit their patrimonial fantasies. Never mind male contraception… NO contraception.

But back to the ‘A’ word. Aside from some casual commentaries back in the 1970s, do the prohibitionists to Abortion think for one moment that your average woman is going to approach an abortion with the casual approach of some minor cosmetic surgery to say a earlobe? Do they honestly think…. well I doubt if the male section do anyway….that a woman who has an abortion just walks away from that, without any memories, any wonderings, any ‘IF’s. Look ladies I am a mere male, I know, but being married to the same gal for fifty years and having two daughters and thus learning a few things, it seems that Abortion is to be a heavy decision to take and that the whole process from thinking about, deciding, going through and aftermath are heavy loads. And yet there are a whole bunch of folk out there witlessly, hysterically, cruelly, screaming about murder, BUT yet dare we suggest those of them who support laxer gun control are complicit in the mass killing of school children? The liberty to carry guns that KILL and not the liberty to make a painful decision to have terminate a pregnancy. How do you interface those beliefs ….Excuse me while I step outside into the night’s cold autumn rain and clear my head of the stink of hypocrisy, and ease down the urge not to use ‘certain’ words in this post.

To conclude by a repeat. Life is not simple. We do not get an easy road. What works for one person is not going to work exactly the same way for another. Forget perfection. Accept there will be Hard Choices. Just a final note that ‘my personal choice’ I keep that under lock and key, my personal opinions should not be part of the narrative, mistaken by a reader as some sort of judgement, some sort of ‘what is right’. Oh no. It’s possible to have one private opinion and one public judgement. I think it comes under the wider part of ‘Compassion’.

In Part Two I put my administrative glasses on and look at what will go wrong in under what will be hypocritically termed nation-wide pro-Life legislation….

No, I an’t done yet…..Not by a long stretch.

Before You Go Any Further on Palestine

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Protests at DNC

Foreword / Forewarning : We are going to some very unpleasant places, where choices have to be made in which no one wins all that they want. There is no easy out either, it’s so narrow, even not getting involved is a choice, and maybe when considering the stakes and options, the very worst. Welcome to the Reality of The World. Accept the harsh facts. What ever you will do, you have to hope it was the least worst option. Bleak? I am afraid so. For many around this world, even in your home region, it is a way of Life. Read on. 

It is understandable that folk are upset, angry, furious or incandescent at what has been taking place in the Gaza region of the Middle East. Even though there is a fearful and dread predictability to it, you only have to travel a few hundred miles north to learn the same type of slaughter took place a decade and less ago; the difference being at least in the UK the demonstrations were not to get involved at all, apparently Assad was entitled to slaughter his own people and the government was criticised for trying to get involved.

Yes folk should be horrified. At any slaughter or mass abuse. I have listed them before, if you don’t know about any others I would suggest checking on Wikipedia under ‘Genocide’. Of course folk will tell me the difference now is that the ‘our’ governments are supporting Israel and supplying arms. This is a good and relevant argument, in part that is, for the simple, grim, unavoidable reason that this event in Gaza is not taking place in isolation. One of the many factors it is linked to is what is and will be taking place in the USA from now until 5th November 2024. The stark choice between a possibly less than perfect Democratic candidate of Kamala Harris and thence her administration, and the manifestation of all that is wrong with the USA’s political and social judgement Donald Trump along with the cabal of Right Wing reaction behind him. The forces which are restricting women’s right to abortion, censoring to what can be read in schools, intimidating the right to walk safely in public places by allowing guns to be proliferated, the persecution of the right to be of any sexual orientation, the eradicating of an administration staffed by folk who do not necessarily agree,  with the president and of course whether you will be allowed not to believe in a god of their manufacture. Make no mistake it will be one or the other. Make no mistake if Trump is let back in at a time of his own questionable judgement there will be a whole group of folk with him with their own agendas, and as long as they feed his ego that will be just fine.

There are folk demonstrating at the Democrat Convention, raising the political tensions. Distracting for events in their own back yard, truth be known. There appear to be some 750,000 voters who have made much of being undecided about voting democrat because of the current administration’s support for Israel. As unpleasant as they might find that stance, I cannot see what solace they would have in by withholding their votes and possibly allowing a Trump administration in, or how they would believe that administration would be sympathetic to the Palestinians. And this is a terrible fact. If this body of voters withhold their votes and by default Trump gets in, then they will be complicit in whatever fate befalls the Palestinians.

And it gets worse. Not just the Palestinians but the Ukrainians. Does anyone need reminding that for some twisted reasoning many Republicans like Putin, he is their kind of guy. And if that were not bad enough. Read back to the summary two paragraphs above. Withhold those votes let Trump in and those 750,000 will be complicit in the misery of women with unwanted or dangerous pregnancies, the fear gripping the LGBT communities in many states, the pressure on teachers to teach ‘The Right Way’, the questionable religious indoctrination of communities, the intimidation of minorities and of course the pardoning of several individuals found guilty of riot and assault on the seat of government.

By now I can imagine some readers may be shaking their head or howling at my words. Demanding what solution do I have then? Am I content to let an extreme religiously fundamentalist government slaughter thousands. Firstly I would have to say ‘no’ and then follow up with asking where were those asking that question when previous genocides were taking place? If you care, you don’t get to pick and chose which Crime Against Humanity you feel is worthy of your attention. Secondly and more importantly at this juncture, at this crossroad, at this challenge  to the stability and democracy of The USA do you, questionnaire feel you have the right to destabilise or hinder an attempt by the forces of true Democracy and Tolerance to halt the march of Intolerance and Regression in your own land? Because by your demonstrations and your other actions that is exactly what you are doing.

Some choice huh? Get behind a government that supports Israel or allow another in which will not just support but encourage Israel. There is no ‘wriggle room’ here. There is no space to shout loudly  in one direction and refuse to support them because they are not being perfect for you. When the Harsh Realities surface on your newsfeeds because everyone knows that the Middle East makes good copy, there are no simple choices involved. Not now. It’s not as simple as it was in previous wars. There has been one going on in your own backyard these past twenty years and it really heated up when an African American was voted in twice to the Whitehouse.

And there is the grimmest of all choices. You stick to your outrage, and you risk letting Trump back in. 

Simple as that.

Welcome to the Rest of the World. There are people making choices like this all over the world. Compromise, take the least worst path, for the alternative will come back to haunt you.   

No escape from that. You can’t switch it off like a TV or a Video Game.     

Elections Beckon. A Series. Part III. Three Days into The Aftermath and I am still not inclined to be Singing and Dancing

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Parliamentary election in Britain

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria Starmer greet supporters outside Downing Street 10, following the results of the election, in London, Britain, July 5, 2024. REUTERS/Hannah McKay

It takes a singular mix of incompetence, arrogance and unsatisfied (or unsated?) ambitions to go from an 80+ parliamentary seat majority to losing 251 of those seats in the space of less than five years. Whereas Labour did make substantial gains; 211 seats, and a majority of 86 the results seems only to fortify the quirks of the UK’s First Past The Post (FPTP) voting system.

For those not familiar with the UK system and to be brief. A General Election is based around winning a parliamentary seat in a constituency, the candidate who polls the most votes wins and legally all the other votes ‘get binned’. Thus the party which wins the most seats and not the most votes will be the one which forms a government, assuming it has an overall majority, simply having the largest number of seats is not sufficient, as the 2010 and 2017 elections showed; that is where deals have to be done and later on promises reneged. Simple yes? Right now onto the quirks. 

The Conservative Government Party had become unpopular, since the Labour share of the vote remained in the region of 32-34% with an increase of 1.6% the result was a substantial vote against the Conservatives and not for Labour. In previous Conservative regions the moderate Liberal Democrats profited to a great degree and although they polled 3,519,199 votes to win 72 seats, it must be borne in mind that the Right Wing Reform polled 4,117,221 and yet only gained 5 seats. Therefore an overall move to Reform away from the Conservatives opened the door for Labour and The Liberal Democrats to profit. It can therefore be argued that aside from severe disenchantment with The Conservatives, the other factor which decided the election result was the FPTP system. Results however need to be considered in the light of percentage of votes cast. In rough terms there were 48,000,000 voters but only 28,000,000 cast, which in itself is not a vote of confidence in the system. With questions on the futures of parties, Government’s ability to turn around the current situation and the low turnout, the future is not set to be one of Bright Hopes and Sunny Uplands. We must however turn to look at the parties in the aftermath. 

Labour- Whereas Keir Starmer brought a long needed discipline back to the one credible alternative governing party in the UK  and his willingness to make compromises or ditch policies for the overall image of Credibility shows, like it on not, a theme of Realism and Practicality. Thus the very small increase in the overall percentage of the vote and the strong showing of the Liberal Democrats in terms of seats with Reform enjoying 5 seats and those 4,000,000+ votes will be facts not lost on Stammer and his team. Nor the fact that whereas a lot of folk are saying it’s a Tory(Conservative) Free Wales- all seats lost, the Reform vote increased in the Principality of Wales.
One outcome Labour will be celebrating is the defeat in Scotland of the ‘Auld’ foe, The SNP,  the ‘ruling party’, lost 39 seats, 36 of them to Labour. ‘Thus the balance is resorted.’ Small wonder Starmer is off to Scotland Sunday the 7th, to ensure that what was once Labour Heartland remains that way. 
As for how this Labour government will work remains to be seen. Rachel Reeves the UK’s first woman Chancellor of the Exchequer has the most unenviable task amongst a whole room full of them. Deputy PM Angela Rayner with left of centre credentials and battle-hardened also has the role of ‘Levelling Up’ (basically fair shares for all regions). One relatively minor role which brings a promising sunbeam is the appointment of James Timpson as Prisons Minister, CEO of a company with a policy of hiring ex-prisoners; whereas not an elected MP, he gets to be made a Lord, which says he can sit in the House of Lords and thus in the Starmer’s Cabinet (That is a quintessentially UK ‘thing’- it’s all you need to know for the purposes of this post).
It bears repeating, there will be little time for celebrating and how many holidays will be cancelled on re-scheduled is anyone’s guess. Labour will have a very short time scale in which to be seen to be turning things around. And the bane of many a Labour set-up, party discipline will be something of a priority. There may well be something of a ‘wartime’ mentality.
It bears repeating. We shall see. We shall see.   

Conservatives- Ever since the day when Margaret Thatcher was effectively told by those about her in government  ‘It’s All Over Now Baby Blue’. There has been an air of more than the normal atmosphere of unsettlement you’d find in a political party. The rift was initially between Thatcherites and those they thought traitors, this morphed into pro and anti-European sentiments, but as time went on the Right Which Should Not Speak Its Name, grew bolder and finally the ill-equipped Boris Johnson was made Prime Minister, deft in some respects but woefully inadequate when it came to the grim, hard calls, however his tendency to appetites caused his downfall.  There was the brief flirtation with the Ridiculous in Liz Truss and then back to the traditional ‘Rather Decent Sort of Chap’ with Rishi Sunak who played the role quite well. Even so the damage had been done and no one in the UK likes a party prone in-fighting, mixed with incompetence and in this case the Conservatives out-did even Labour on a bad day.
The aftermath may turn into something entertaining for the neutral and a useful distraction for the Labour Government when it moves into the area of bringing controversially minor but important details. The scale of the sheer disaster for the Conservatives suggests a line up between the traditional near moderate conservatives with a small ‘c’ and the activist-prone those who would be king/queen on the hard wing; as demonstrated by Labour in post 2019. Battle lines have already been drawn between those already saying ‘More Like Reform’ and the ‘Utter Tosh’ response. To write off the Conservatives as a spent force would be folly, they have an in built resilience, although with That Reform there could be a very messy four-way fight for the Heart and Soul of the basically Not Labour / Liberal (as in Lib-Dem) wing of society. Rishi Sunak will continue to play the ‘Jolly Decent Chap’ caretaker role in the meantime and many a moderate might mourn his passing. It will be a time when new names will rise.     

Liberal-Democrats – It is hard not to view Ed Davy as someone who bought a strip of lottery tickets and found he’s the winner of the multi-million currency prize. Back in 2010 ignoring history, leader Nick Clegg made a catastrophic formal coalition with David Cameron’s Conservatives, was gently pushed aside by their machine and earned the ire of a hard-built up support, dooming the party to single figures, which was its fate, until now. No doubt the beneficiaries of Conservative-Rejection, the current grouping of 72 MPs will be in a totally understandable parliamentary mindset of ‘Golly-gosh. What do we do now? Oh my. Oh my,’. It will take some very cool and pragmatic heads to lower the temperature to a ‘This is promising’ constructive level and use the bounty as a foundation for a possible long haul back to taking the centre-ground. If the Conservatives do slide to an entrenched Right wing stance, such a re-positioning with the Liberal-Democrats could be possible. The Liberal-Democrats had been written off either as ‘Nice Folk but…‘ or ‘Total Sell-Outs’ . Maintaining their composure and producing a solid and believable platform could well resonate amongst moderate folk, particularly across England who are weary of the ‘Old Two Sides’. They will need to set their sights firmly on the years ahead though and stick to the No Coalitions strategy. Another thorny issue for them; for years they have campaigned for Proportional Representation and not FPTP, now since they have greatly benefitted from the latter, how loud will their voice be?  

Reform UK – 5 MPs and 4,000,000+ votes, with hard-line Conservatives desperate to hang on saying ‘Perhaps we should chat to them’ and Farage finally getting in Parliament. It is folly to ignore this grouping, even though they attract unpleasant folk who despite and maybe because of their nasty comments did not affect the voting bloc. It has to be accepted anti-immigration and  the associated ‘R’ word (despite denials) played well. This said Reform has its own problems some of which will have occurred to its more astute followers or observers, and other issues which lurk for every party at some stage.
First- Its leader. Farage is a consummate salesman, for he has kept the Right-Wing anti-immigration,’ Out of Europe’ policies alive and thrashing throughout the years and in several forms. And yet in debate with other politicians he is a light-weight and tends to form a party which should be all about him. He was sharp enough to ditch some very nasty characters who slithered out during the campaigns and tried to distance Reform from the vile White Supremacist thugs. That said, does he have the stamina for the Long Haul? It’s one thing to be on the side lines banging a drum, it’s quite another task to work in Parliament. He will face debate after debate there, and it is a brutal place.
Second- What is Reform? Extreme Right- White Power? Social Revolutionaries intent on truly reforming the entire system? Folk looking to take over from a moribund and divided Conservative Party? Are those Five MPs truly united, and will they live up to voter expectations. It should be borne in mind amongst all their expected rightest policies there was the very Left Wing re-nationalise The Public Utilities. 
Third- The Conservative question. As stated earlier some Conservatives are fluttering eyelashes at Reform; there again Farage appears to have sniffed very dismissively at the thought. Thus in the coming Conservative turbulence, will Reform be drawn in and thus find its own internal pressures to say ‘Yes’ ‘No’ or ‘Maybe’. A four-way very arcane struggle could take place.
Four- The question which they would rather not discuss. A very wealthy Asian, Islamic business man Zia Yusuf donated a very large sum to the Reform coffers (figures vary). Now actually there is nothing unusual about someone who is not white thinking a Party like Reform would be a could thing for the UK. The previous Conservative Government had a wider ethnical base than the new Labour version. Mr. Yusuf has made his fortune in the UK and would like things to stay ‘as they were’ when his parents arrived in the UK. How is that going to play with the very unpleasant wing of Reform is another matter. Also it has been noticed that Mr Yusuf is quite the public speaker. Just saying, that’s all.   

SNP-   Brits reading could well be thinking on the classic TV sit-com ‘Dad’s Army’ and the Scots character Private Frazer with his catch phrase ‘We’re doomed’. The SNP were always in danger of suffering a backlash as a result of their recent years’ tenure as Government at the Scots Parliament at Holyrood, Edinburgh. Failure to push policies through, debates over deliverance on Independence, scandal and the collapse of a coalition with the Scots Greens over environmental issues. On the whole the feeling they were taking the Scottish vote for granted played into Labour’s hands. An additional factor would have been that the Conservative Government could overrule SNP legislation, such as in the case of recent Gender Recognition, therefore the idea in Scotland that a complete Labour overhaul across the UK might be a better option would have played well.
It’s a long hard road back for the SNP, and they must be looking to the Scots election in 2026 for a revival of fortunes hoping discontent has set in at Labour by then. A lot can happen in one and a quarter years.    

Plaid Cymru- Have to be feeling just a bit pleased. They now have four seats, and the whole of the western part of Wales, which looks good on a map. They polled nearly 200,000 and their percentage of the Welsh vote went up slightly now at 14.7% Whereas not earth shaking by any means, it will prove that they have not faded back in obscurity, and will look to make inroads into the Eastern Vote. Their current opponents would be Reform who have increased their vote in Wales. So forget that ‘Tory Free Wales’ triumphant message; the Right is alive and festering. Plaid are the ones to take it on.  

Greens (England and Wales)– This party must be feeling very happy. One extra seat, taken from a Conservative rural heartland which must be a optimistic rune. 1,841,388 votes 6.39% of the vote increased by 3.9%. Another party which suffered from the FPTP system but must feel they have befitted from scandals over sewerage being pumped into rivers and coastal sites, along with concerns over rural lands being turned over the building and roadways, then there are the environmental issues. For various reasons the Greens of Scotland and Northern Ireland are two separate parties, neither made any inroads, but they are both battling against entrenched issues. Overall though the Greens will look to build on this, if only to continually come second or third. 4 seats in the House of Commons is not to be sniffed at.    

Overview

To begin I apologise to any readers in Northern Ireland for not mentioning their results and the implications. As stated previously Northern Ireland has it’s own particular take and traditions and to make some overall statement from ‘The Mainland’ is simply just not right and proper. If anyone from the region wishes to write their own post on those implications from their perspective, please do so.  

In the Mainland UK the numbers, therefore do not tell the complete story. It can be argued that even Labour had mixed fortunes, losing two contests. One to Reform and another to an Independent standing as a result of the war in Gaza. With this in mind it would appear the Muslim community in at least substantial part will currently expect a pro-Palestinian stance by parties to earn their vote. That said Labour has won back the Jewish vote previously lost either deliberately or by fearful incompetence. 

The main concern amongst parties, (aside from Reform and paradoxically The Green Party) will be the lack of votes. The results seem to have demonstrated that a truly representative election system will be a Proportional System (PR), normally the preserve of liberal and left of centre parties. However the idea of Reform, The Greens and The Liberal Democrats united on the issue is an interesting concept. Meanwhile for many the thought of Reform getting seats on the basis on their share of the vote will have them thinking that maybe FPTP is not so bad for Britain, after all.

There is therefore still much to be concerned about. Studied disillusionment. A turbulence in many an overseas location. The continued progress of the Far Right. The wreckage that is the Nation, is this beyond repair in less than a decade and can folk accept that price and strain? And for those of us who support Labour, will this be a victory strong enough to handle the strain or just another paper one?

Even after this election it is still We Shall See.