Category Archives: Voting Systems

USA. Your Time is Running Out.

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ITALY-FRANCE-WEATHER-FEATURE

Yes USA. You as many a nation before you are being called to account. You stand at a crossroads. You may have been told this is all about Liberty. You will have been warned that there is a risk Democracy could be taken away from you. You will have been told that Intolerance and Bigotry will be rife.

Indeed, all possibilities, and then things could get worse. Much worse. Worse than you may have imagined. Or maybe dreaded.

Exaggeration you say?

OK. Look at it this way. This winter, there will be weather warnings about heavy snowfalls. I take it you will take precautions to try to minimise the effect. I expect you will not ignore them, unless you are suffering from conspiracitis. (A terminal disease). You will pay attention.
So why do you not pay attention to the warning of what can happen if the Right once more win this presidential election? Or if they lose have another spoiled brat tantrum?

Think you worst possibility, then think worse again.

Ah dear reader I am done writing mild(ish) balanced posts. This is an updated version of another post, from another blog

https://politicsandhistory359465094.wordpress.com/2022/05/08/a-spectre-to-be-exorcised-communal-violence/↗

I very much doubt if this will be read by the numbers of folk my words are intended for, it is probably too late and I have written this theme over and over again down the past few years.

So why bother?

It’s not about my nation, the UK. It appears to be a self-inflicted folly by a portion of a nation who gave up thinking of Implications and Consequences and either switched off or dreamed out the jagged cutting parts of the ideas fed them.

Why bother?

Because it is my duty to bother. Because in this world of instance communication, complex interlockings and interactions, where after two Global Wars and a series large enough conflicts with attendant social eruptions, whatever happens ‘There’ will be implications ‘Here’. Because if I claim to embrace a set of values which generally aims for Compassion, Tolerance and Respect, it is not acceptable to sit back,  shrug and do something pleasantly diverting.
Because the forces which are set out in the Broadness of History constantly roiling are at a stage at which they threaten to erupt. History you say, is always written by the victor…..Nonsense. History has a long, long reach and victors of one time do not stay thus.

It can be argued that no two nations histories go along the same lines. However there are tides and there are commonalities, particularly in the areas of discord. If one grouping feels another grouping is imposing upon it, in a heavy and unjust way, then there will be a reaction. The group of course doing the imposition will feel that it is justified to do so. Lines will be drawn, discourse will be closed down, each will turn unto themselves. And when the side imposing the will does not have the unconditional support  of all the security or defence forces personnel having made personal attacks upon them, it is then that unpleasant and unthinkable possibilities arise.
And in the USA this is being drawn in a very ever thickening line. For neither side has the will or ability to reach over to the other; despite the efforts of some very brave folk, there is no general consensus for this polarisation to stop. Thus from here the chances of physical conflict are raised upwards, to volatile states as one ‘But they can’t / wouldn’t do that’ gets swept away by the next newsfeed.

Some foolish folk will welcome it, thinking of a replay of the Civil War, or some sort of boardgame set up (yes they are out there, rather naïve ideas of the opposing forces) and there’s a very, very politically unsatisfactory unrealistic film going the rounds too.
It would not be like that. Look not to Syria of the past decade as an example, turn instead to Northern Ireland of the late 20th century, and maybe with an edge of mutiny within some of those charged with order.

Writing this it is difficult not to have the ageless Dylan song ‘Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall’ in my head. Listen to its lyrics and fit them into this time and place in the USA.

One final thought. Of course, there will be other nations seeking to take advantage of this. The motives are inscribed in the International Relations playbooks. If I was living in and devoted to that nation and fearful of the USA I would be expecting my government to do something to benefit ‘our nation’

A handful days of deciding and one day of voting to go. I personally only have Hope left in my resources. Hope for my friends in the USA, Hope for the folk of Ukraine, Hope for Hope’s sake.

Hope that the 6th of November will be decked in an allegorical sunrise.

And Hope that over the course of the next year, this post will be made to look ridiculously overblown and alarmist. A small price to pay.

About this guy. Vance, Trump’s Running Mate. A View From Across The Pond

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Vance

Of course there has been and is going to be a lot written about anyone who is chosen as a running mate in a US Presidential Election. The only ones that rule doesn’t apply to are incumbent VPs who unless they do or say something singular just get a few lines here and there and the odd photo.

Now Mr. J D Vance. For starters ‘J D’? I mean, that’s fine for a writer of novels ‘Another wonderful addition to the pantheon of work of J D Vance’  Yep, that sounds good. And he did it, didn’t he? ‘Hillbilly Elergy’.  Or front man in an indy band ‘Once more J D Vance’s combination of lyrics and meoldic voice take us to places we can only dream about, I’d buy the album, straight off. But in a politican? I mean what are wrong the names James, David ? Surely those are sound solid all american names? ..JAMES, DAVID...VANCE. Some folk might vote for the ticket on that score alone ‘Truth be known, ah never cared much for the name Don-nald Trrump. Ah mean when y’all get down to it sounds too northern slick. Him a Noo Yorker an’ all. But he’ll be gone soon being in his seventies…An’ then we’ll get a fellah with a real name….James David Vance…Yup. Can’t go wrong with James-David-Vance,’.
Truth be known the name struck a chord in the memory, some sinister and then it came to me this morning….J J Hunsecker the monsterously creepy columinst as played by Burt Lancaster in The Sweet Smell of Success. What an unfortunate association…..No, must be my febrile imagination…Socialism does that to you; apparently.
Anyway, we’re stuck with ‘J.D’ I guess. Maybe it’s all to do with that book. Somehow though for a politician, a class who are supposed to be all about openess and honesty (stop sniggering you lot in the back of there), publically calling yourself ‘J D’ – well jus’ don’t seem right y’all . Sounds like….well…enter-tain-ment.

And there’s that index finger and thumb gesture with the other fingers held delicately forwards
Vance 2

Trump does that all the time, now he’s doing it. I know with the fingers held upwards it means ‘OK’ or ‘Cool’ .But that way? So prissy. Reminds me of a lesser Jane Austen character explaining to a salesman just what sort of toothpick he’s looking for. No, give me a clenched hand firm of purpose. I mean you don’t, see Putin being prissy do you?

Anyway those are the lesser, but physiologically telling niggles out of the way. (What do you mean I am nit picking? The republicans do it all the time? I recall Obama couldn’t wear a flag pin right, according to them anyway). Now let’s get to the important one relevant to the United (sorta) Kingdom anyway. Mr J D Vance’s recent observation about the UK. 

The following is part open letter to J D but dear reader please feel free to take any part you like and use it in any way you care….

No kidding; the guy reckons Britain under Labour might be the first Islamic nation with nuclear weapons…..read this if you don’t believe me

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn07e2ep20no

Now it is something of a short-sighted and breath-takingly ignorant article of faith amongst british activists all of stripes that all americans are either devious, neurotic or plain stupid. Yet speaking as one brit who has defended the American in general for decades klutzs fellows like Mr J D Vance don’t make the task of defence against the last accusation easy, bearing in mind this guy might be a sneeze or a hamburger away from being President.

Hey J D. I say old chap, a quiet word or two 

OK FIRST POINT J D. Pakistan- islamic country…wait for it….Has nuclear weapons!  Kind of Counts ????? Now I know possession of a politcal or social or militray atlas may be way  down your list of must haves. BUT since you were in the US Marines, and made much of the lessons you were taught. AND were a military journalist I would have thought you might have got the idea of which nations are nuclear powers into your nogging. You having political ambitions of the highest order an’ all.  ‘Pakistan kind of counts’……Jeeeezzz Loooooeeezzzz!!

Now Second point J D. A few stats, as per last census.

Brits who consider themselves Christian (going to church optional) = 46%

Brits who consider themselves aethists and agonostics                 = 39%

Brits who consider themslves Muslim                                              =    6.5%

Now while you are figuring out how 6.5% are going to take over 85+ (others)% with 18 muslim Member of Parliment in the Labour party total of  411 Members of Parliment. Let us look at a background.

  1. The UK muslim electorate has expressed concern if not distrust at Labour (government) for Keir Stammer’s support for Israel’s right to be…. well Israel. Which is uncomfortable for Labour, but since Labour has a majority of  174 and the nation on the whole is focusing on internal issues the Muslim influence on government overseas policy is going to be minimal. 
  2. 4,000,000 folk voted for the extreme Right-Wing party Reform. Convincing those voters to drift back even to the Conservative Party in the hard world of Realpolitik will be a task uppermost in some minds. Now go and work that out for yourself yo-yo.
  3. Immigration is a ‘topic’ in the UK, but the simple idea that there are waves of folk of Muslim faith flooding in and thus taking over the UK. Well you are talking in a million a year J D, over 10 years, maybe . I’ll keep it simple for you….An’t happening

There are other factors which are subtle and work in quiet corners of places folk would rather not talk about in public and probably would go over the head of someone who thinks that Alex Jones is a source of information, so I won’t press you on that. However you are designated Interfering Fool for making an unwise statement which will be only of value to far right-wing thugs like the English Defence League and add another layer of problems for the Muslim population of the UK which suffers enough from intolerance and stupidity

Now we all sound off from time to time and make statements which are either meant to be sarcastic or satirical or just end up being plain wacko because we are either angry or have been ingesting too much of something, but that statement???…. The last time I heard something along those lines was from a very excited teenage London muslim lad who said there would be the Crescent flag flying over ‘Number 10’ (that’s where the PM lives J D), next year…..that was about fifteen years ago.

I suppose (big sigh), being on the side of US politics you are still fixed with that idea that Labour is an authoritarian, police-state, censorship, state imposition sort of party….like the 2025 agenda thing you guys have got going over there….Did I get that right? Or, like you, did I just make a stunningly inaccurate generalisation about politics in a nation I do not, nor have ever resided in.

Look J D  buddy, if you want to hold that VP cum hopeful President post, you better do your homework on the nations you will be dealing with, otherwise, well somewhere down the road Europe is going to close its doors on the USA and quite frankly you are not big enough to stand alone, not up against Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and a few other states who will climb on board. Well not unless you want to use those nuclear weapons? Now there’s an ironic thought, a religious fundementalist faith-based neo theocracy with access to nuclear weapons. Britain?…… 

Nope- Guess  again.

Closing note: Honestly dear reader, Realpolitik Roger can comprehend and accept with hostility, hardened professionals doing what they do on the International scene, whether I like them or not, that’s part of History, sadly. What I cannot abide is half-baked Amatuers with  perceptions so blinkered they make walking near a cliff edge in a fog with just a key ring torch a sensible move. Now they are the real danger.

J D Vance- Vice President….Could make some folk wanna wish Trump a long life- yep if you ask me…. that bad! (Proves there’s always someone worse y’know)

Take care all of you. We live in the Age of Yo-Yos 

Elections Beckon. A Series. Part III. Three Days into The Aftermath and I am still not inclined to be Singing and Dancing

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Parliamentary election in Britain

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria Starmer greet supporters outside Downing Street 10, following the results of the election, in London, Britain, July 5, 2024. REUTERS/Hannah McKay

It takes a singular mix of incompetence, arrogance and unsatisfied (or unsated?) ambitions to go from an 80+ parliamentary seat majority to losing 251 of those seats in the space of less than five years. Whereas Labour did make substantial gains; 211 seats, and a majority of 86 the results seems only to fortify the quirks of the UK’s First Past The Post (FPTP) voting system.

For those not familiar with the UK system and to be brief. A General Election is based around winning a parliamentary seat in a constituency, the candidate who polls the most votes wins and legally all the other votes ‘get binned’. Thus the party which wins the most seats and not the most votes will be the one which forms a government, assuming it has an overall majority, simply having the largest number of seats is not sufficient, as the 2010 and 2017 elections showed; that is where deals have to be done and later on promises reneged. Simple yes? Right now onto the quirks. 

The Conservative Government Party had become unpopular, since the Labour share of the vote remained in the region of 32-34% with an increase of 1.6% the result was a substantial vote against the Conservatives and not for Labour. In previous Conservative regions the moderate Liberal Democrats profited to a great degree and although they polled 3,519,199 votes to win 72 seats, it must be borne in mind that the Right Wing Reform polled 4,117,221 and yet only gained 5 seats. Therefore an overall move to Reform away from the Conservatives opened the door for Labour and The Liberal Democrats to profit. It can therefore be argued that aside from severe disenchantment with The Conservatives, the other factor which decided the election result was the FPTP system. Results however need to be considered in the light of percentage of votes cast. In rough terms there were 48,000,000 voters but only 28,000,000 cast, which in itself is not a vote of confidence in the system. With questions on the futures of parties, Government’s ability to turn around the current situation and the low turnout, the future is not set to be one of Bright Hopes and Sunny Uplands. We must however turn to look at the parties in the aftermath. 

Labour- Whereas Keir Starmer brought a long needed discipline back to the one credible alternative governing party in the UK  and his willingness to make compromises or ditch policies for the overall image of Credibility shows, like it on not, a theme of Realism and Practicality. Thus the very small increase in the overall percentage of the vote and the strong showing of the Liberal Democrats in terms of seats with Reform enjoying 5 seats and those 4,000,000+ votes will be facts not lost on Stammer and his team. Nor the fact that whereas a lot of folk are saying it’s a Tory(Conservative) Free Wales- all seats lost, the Reform vote increased in the Principality of Wales.
One outcome Labour will be celebrating is the defeat in Scotland of the ‘Auld’ foe, The SNP,  the ‘ruling party’, lost 39 seats, 36 of them to Labour. ‘Thus the balance is resorted.’ Small wonder Starmer is off to Scotland Sunday the 7th, to ensure that what was once Labour Heartland remains that way. 
As for how this Labour government will work remains to be seen. Rachel Reeves the UK’s first woman Chancellor of the Exchequer has the most unenviable task amongst a whole room full of them. Deputy PM Angela Rayner with left of centre credentials and battle-hardened also has the role of ‘Levelling Up’ (basically fair shares for all regions). One relatively minor role which brings a promising sunbeam is the appointment of James Timpson as Prisons Minister, CEO of a company with a policy of hiring ex-prisoners; whereas not an elected MP, he gets to be made a Lord, which says he can sit in the House of Lords and thus in the Starmer’s Cabinet (That is a quintessentially UK ‘thing’- it’s all you need to know for the purposes of this post).
It bears repeating, there will be little time for celebrating and how many holidays will be cancelled on re-scheduled is anyone’s guess. Labour will have a very short time scale in which to be seen to be turning things around. And the bane of many a Labour set-up, party discipline will be something of a priority. There may well be something of a ‘wartime’ mentality.
It bears repeating. We shall see. We shall see.   

Conservatives- Ever since the day when Margaret Thatcher was effectively told by those about her in government  ‘It’s All Over Now Baby Blue’. There has been an air of more than the normal atmosphere of unsettlement you’d find in a political party. The rift was initially between Thatcherites and those they thought traitors, this morphed into pro and anti-European sentiments, but as time went on the Right Which Should Not Speak Its Name, grew bolder and finally the ill-equipped Boris Johnson was made Prime Minister, deft in some respects but woefully inadequate when it came to the grim, hard calls, however his tendency to appetites caused his downfall.  There was the brief flirtation with the Ridiculous in Liz Truss and then back to the traditional ‘Rather Decent Sort of Chap’ with Rishi Sunak who played the role quite well. Even so the damage had been done and no one in the UK likes a party prone in-fighting, mixed with incompetence and in this case the Conservatives out-did even Labour on a bad day.
The aftermath may turn into something entertaining for the neutral and a useful distraction for the Labour Government when it moves into the area of bringing controversially minor but important details. The scale of the sheer disaster for the Conservatives suggests a line up between the traditional near moderate conservatives with a small ‘c’ and the activist-prone those who would be king/queen on the hard wing; as demonstrated by Labour in post 2019. Battle lines have already been drawn between those already saying ‘More Like Reform’ and the ‘Utter Tosh’ response. To write off the Conservatives as a spent force would be folly, they have an in built resilience, although with That Reform there could be a very messy four-way fight for the Heart and Soul of the basically Not Labour / Liberal (as in Lib-Dem) wing of society. Rishi Sunak will continue to play the ‘Jolly Decent Chap’ caretaker role in the meantime and many a moderate might mourn his passing. It will be a time when new names will rise.     

Liberal-Democrats – It is hard not to view Ed Davy as someone who bought a strip of lottery tickets and found he’s the winner of the multi-million currency prize. Back in 2010 ignoring history, leader Nick Clegg made a catastrophic formal coalition with David Cameron’s Conservatives, was gently pushed aside by their machine and earned the ire of a hard-built up support, dooming the party to single figures, which was its fate, until now. No doubt the beneficiaries of Conservative-Rejection, the current grouping of 72 MPs will be in a totally understandable parliamentary mindset of ‘Golly-gosh. What do we do now? Oh my. Oh my,’. It will take some very cool and pragmatic heads to lower the temperature to a ‘This is promising’ constructive level and use the bounty as a foundation for a possible long haul back to taking the centre-ground. If the Conservatives do slide to an entrenched Right wing stance, such a re-positioning with the Liberal-Democrats could be possible. The Liberal-Democrats had been written off either as ‘Nice Folk but…‘ or ‘Total Sell-Outs’ . Maintaining their composure and producing a solid and believable platform could well resonate amongst moderate folk, particularly across England who are weary of the ‘Old Two Sides’. They will need to set their sights firmly on the years ahead though and stick to the No Coalitions strategy. Another thorny issue for them; for years they have campaigned for Proportional Representation and not FPTP, now since they have greatly benefitted from the latter, how loud will their voice be?  

Reform UK – 5 MPs and 4,000,000+ votes, with hard-line Conservatives desperate to hang on saying ‘Perhaps we should chat to them’ and Farage finally getting in Parliament. It is folly to ignore this grouping, even though they attract unpleasant folk who despite and maybe because of their nasty comments did not affect the voting bloc. It has to be accepted anti-immigration and  the associated ‘R’ word (despite denials) played well. This said Reform has its own problems some of which will have occurred to its more astute followers or observers, and other issues which lurk for every party at some stage.
First- Its leader. Farage is a consummate salesman, for he has kept the Right-Wing anti-immigration,’ Out of Europe’ policies alive and thrashing throughout the years and in several forms. And yet in debate with other politicians he is a light-weight and tends to form a party which should be all about him. He was sharp enough to ditch some very nasty characters who slithered out during the campaigns and tried to distance Reform from the vile White Supremacist thugs. That said, does he have the stamina for the Long Haul? It’s one thing to be on the side lines banging a drum, it’s quite another task to work in Parliament. He will face debate after debate there, and it is a brutal place.
Second- What is Reform? Extreme Right- White Power? Social Revolutionaries intent on truly reforming the entire system? Folk looking to take over from a moribund and divided Conservative Party? Are those Five MPs truly united, and will they live up to voter expectations. It should be borne in mind amongst all their expected rightest policies there was the very Left Wing re-nationalise The Public Utilities. 
Third- The Conservative question. As stated earlier some Conservatives are fluttering eyelashes at Reform; there again Farage appears to have sniffed very dismissively at the thought. Thus in the coming Conservative turbulence, will Reform be drawn in and thus find its own internal pressures to say ‘Yes’ ‘No’ or ‘Maybe’. A four-way very arcane struggle could take place.
Four- The question which they would rather not discuss. A very wealthy Asian, Islamic business man Zia Yusuf donated a very large sum to the Reform coffers (figures vary). Now actually there is nothing unusual about someone who is not white thinking a Party like Reform would be a could thing for the UK. The previous Conservative Government had a wider ethnical base than the new Labour version. Mr. Yusuf has made his fortune in the UK and would like things to stay ‘as they were’ when his parents arrived in the UK. How is that going to play with the very unpleasant wing of Reform is another matter. Also it has been noticed that Mr Yusuf is quite the public speaker. Just saying, that’s all.   

SNP-   Brits reading could well be thinking on the classic TV sit-com ‘Dad’s Army’ and the Scots character Private Frazer with his catch phrase ‘We’re doomed’. The SNP were always in danger of suffering a backlash as a result of their recent years’ tenure as Government at the Scots Parliament at Holyrood, Edinburgh. Failure to push policies through, debates over deliverance on Independence, scandal and the collapse of a coalition with the Scots Greens over environmental issues. On the whole the feeling they were taking the Scottish vote for granted played into Labour’s hands. An additional factor would have been that the Conservative Government could overrule SNP legislation, such as in the case of recent Gender Recognition, therefore the idea in Scotland that a complete Labour overhaul across the UK might be a better option would have played well.
It’s a long hard road back for the SNP, and they must be looking to the Scots election in 2026 for a revival of fortunes hoping discontent has set in at Labour by then. A lot can happen in one and a quarter years.    

Plaid Cymru- Have to be feeling just a bit pleased. They now have four seats, and the whole of the western part of Wales, which looks good on a map. They polled nearly 200,000 and their percentage of the Welsh vote went up slightly now at 14.7% Whereas not earth shaking by any means, it will prove that they have not faded back in obscurity, and will look to make inroads into the Eastern Vote. Their current opponents would be Reform who have increased their vote in Wales. So forget that ‘Tory Free Wales’ triumphant message; the Right is alive and festering. Plaid are the ones to take it on.  

Greens (England and Wales)– This party must be feeling very happy. One extra seat, taken from a Conservative rural heartland which must be a optimistic rune. 1,841,388 votes 6.39% of the vote increased by 3.9%. Another party which suffered from the FPTP system but must feel they have befitted from scandals over sewerage being pumped into rivers and coastal sites, along with concerns over rural lands being turned over the building and roadways, then there are the environmental issues. For various reasons the Greens of Scotland and Northern Ireland are two separate parties, neither made any inroads, but they are both battling against entrenched issues. Overall though the Greens will look to build on this, if only to continually come second or third. 4 seats in the House of Commons is not to be sniffed at.    

Overview

To begin I apologise to any readers in Northern Ireland for not mentioning their results and the implications. As stated previously Northern Ireland has it’s own particular take and traditions and to make some overall statement from ‘The Mainland’ is simply just not right and proper. If anyone from the region wishes to write their own post on those implications from their perspective, please do so.  

In the Mainland UK the numbers, therefore do not tell the complete story. It can be argued that even Labour had mixed fortunes, losing two contests. One to Reform and another to an Independent standing as a result of the war in Gaza. With this in mind it would appear the Muslim community in at least substantial part will currently expect a pro-Palestinian stance by parties to earn their vote. That said Labour has won back the Jewish vote previously lost either deliberately or by fearful incompetence. 

The main concern amongst parties, (aside from Reform and paradoxically The Green Party) will be the lack of votes. The results seem to have demonstrated that a truly representative election system will be a Proportional System (PR), normally the preserve of liberal and left of centre parties. However the idea of Reform, The Greens and The Liberal Democrats united on the issue is an interesting concept. Meanwhile for many the thought of Reform getting seats on the basis on their share of the vote will have them thinking that maybe FPTP is not so bad for Britain, after all.

There is therefore still much to be concerned about. Studied disillusionment. A turbulence in many an overseas location. The continued progress of the Far Right. The wreckage that is the Nation, is this beyond repair in less than a decade and can folk accept that price and strain? And for those of us who support Labour, will this be a victory strong enough to handle the strain or just another paper one?

Even after this election it is still We Shall See.