Following my previous post

A Spectre to be Exorcised (Communal Violence)- A Repeated from 2022

My good and dear Friend Jill nudged me into this based on the extract It may be too late to do anything about what might happen in the USA on and after the 5th of November 2024, and the subsequent ramifications across the world- for you are one of three largest and most globally influential nation states. Jill asked me to look into my ideas as to what that might entail.

Foreword
It has almost become a convention in the lesser books of Military History and certainly useful for the hero in many an action thriller to use the phrase ‘No Plan Survives Contact With The Enemy’. Whereas it may be getting stale in those contexts the meaning behind it remains a bleak warning as to Uncertainty.
The sentiments behind that phrase can be carried forward into a complete overhaul of the words into ‘No Action’s Full Consequences Can Be Predicted’. This can be carried into all manner of life choices- a rich theme for films and books as in the 1998 film ‘Sliding Doors’ , though when this moves into the area World Politics, the myriads of players and the variable circumstances the possibilities are numerous and more than a few ominous.
Sometimes these start with seemingly small local events – The Assassination of Archduke Ferdinand on 28th June 1914 was initially seen in diplomatic circles as a local event, a Hapsburg problem by the 28th July 1914 but a lighted match had been dropped in a tinder dry forest; World War One had started. Sometimes the event can be of the Last Straw type. The Invasion by Germany into Poland on the 1st September 1939 being an example. Others times to march to complete catastrophe is not inevitable such as The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962. While others lurk in the shadows of earlier histories: The Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916 between France and Britain was a plan to divide up the Ottoman Empire after World War One and avoid ‘unpleasantness’ between the two – it is a major factor in all Middle East conflicts post 1945.

The following is based on that premise, but I must stress there are no solid predictions here, that would be folly and conceit; herein are conjectures which may happen yet in turn have their own ramifications distant in the murk of International Politics and Internal Dynamics. The reason my writing it is to demonstrate that there is nothing ‘business as usual’ about this American Presidential Election of 2024, for whether a reader likes it or not what happens in the USA, a vast nation with large resources and a myriad of political and diplomatic links will have ramifications in the world as a whole. When large nations move, the rest of the world feels it. Yes, I know you Dear Reader did not ask for this. Circumstances, though.

21st Century and the USA
Currently the USA exists in a world beset by major and inescapable factors. The Russo- Ukrainian War; the replacement of Communist Revolutionary movements with the return of Aggressive forms of Islam as political-military factors; the revitalised China using both commerce and military forces as a means to ensure its continuation as a major power; the unavoidable fact that the Climate is altering due to Human activity. All set against a backdrop of Human unfocused dissatisfaction. In this, the USA to the outside once a seeming monolith able to navigate internal upheavals and yet remain dominant.

To proceed we must start from a base of a prediction that the USA has indeed become a place of communal violence. The mass shootings by disturbed individuals have been replaced by targeted violence through gun, bomb, IED and riots masked as demonstrations. Politicians, commentators, celebrities, campaigners of all stripes are amongst the casualties. This naturally has the following effects:

An extra pressure of resources of internal security forces and an uncertainty on the political loyalty of individuals.
An accelerated greater polarisation of politics at all levels.
A general diminution of confidence in the USA as a partner and in those competitors encouragement to take greater advantage of the situation.

It is in the latter of the three for the purpose of this post we need to focus.

Directly and open hostile groups or nations would be drawn to interfere in this. As examples Russia and its allies are already supporting the Right even a modest increase in support through finance or internet activity would be seen to pay dividends. Islamic groups or possibly Iran would do likewise by playing on the fears of native American Muslims, subject to hostility, an ideal time to plague ‘Great Satan’, though this would likely have another knock on effect into that Gulf State governments and Israel would enter the scene in a very complicated game. And of course where there is chaos and suffering Criminal Elements would seek to profit, the opportunities would be myriad, particularly as they could operate under the guise of a political affiliation.
In addition to the opportunism of direct intervention would be the temptation of other nations to take advantage of American distraction, weakening of abilities and lack of focus.
The survival of Ukraine in its current form would be the first. Should Russia prevail and bring the country to heel, the Baltic states, Finland and Scandinavian nations would be among the first, to take action along with smaller border nations such as Georgia and Moldavia. The rest of Europe would then face possibilities of uniting without the USA, or fracturing in pro and anti-Russian lines. Uncertainty not seen since the early days of the 1950s would return. The UK would likely experience an increase in drawing closer to Europe again, although the anti-American pro-Moscow forces would make a fuss.
Whereas China would prefer a certain amount of stability as it moves along a commercial path to world domination, a USA distracted would increase its desire to bring South East Asia and a large regions of the Pacific under its domination. Taiwan and Philippines being current targets of low key aggression, and Pacific island states soft power.
The USA in terms of material resources has little in the African Continent in the North, The Sahel and the Sub-Saharan nations. As France appears to be on twin paths of rejection and ejection a gradual redrawing is taking place. Russia’s return under the guise of Wagner private army. China’s persistence now with its Belt and Road Initiative. Islamic groupings based on local dissatisfactions. You could be forgiven for wondering if despite a great deal of effort by African nations that nothing changed since the 19th Century ‘Scramble for Africa’ then between Britain and France.
That most unhappy region The Middle East often a victim of US intervention, sometimes well-meaning brokerage would find it would be business as usual, with a US Right encouraging Israel to continue in its wars. However matters are far more complex than Israel vs Hamas / Hezbollah, behind this run struggles between Saudi Arabia and allied nations and Iran recently played out in Yemen. The permutations and possibilities here could fill a series of weekly posts that might make up double figures into the twenties and would then only scratch the surface.

And those are only a few examples. To elaborate on the theme of lack of US influence. Many situations are already running with scant attention by the players to what the USA thinks. There lies India and Pakistan’s continuous conflicts direct or by proxy. In Myanmar the internal struggles against the Military are practically supported by a Crowd Funding system, and far beneath the attention of the nearly the entire Western Activist / Protest movements never mind US policy. There are also myriad of struggles by minority communities through the world. Meanwhile aside from the forays by the main media, yes I am talking about the BBC here, who outside of the UN cares about Sudan? Look into any of those and you’ll get a general idea of what goes on outside of US main policy and how that could be extended if the USA continues to turn inwards on its polarising internal conflicts.

USA- Sorry Folks But It Is An Important Nation
It is a commonalty to find items around the net either blaming the USA for all the world’s ill, or from Americans in angst over how terrible their nation has been. If we take the unarguable fact that no nation or peoples in the long track of history ever have a clean record, then the USA takes its place. However whatever you care to throw at the USA, there will be parallels and far worse in the Past and in The Present. As far as International Politics and History are concerned no one gets a free pass.

This said, the USA being a very big nation, which in the aftermath of WWII was the one stable giant which inherited either by intent or more likely by default a world defining role. This makes that Nation also by default in the eyes of the world The Main Villain, irrespective of what others are up to. Britain, France and Spain to name a few went through it. China and Russia seem to have some undefinable quality never to completely decline and keep coming back, though for some reasons there are always folk willing to make excuses for them; without living within their borders that is. Nonetheless the USA has until recently maintained a solid role of ‘Being There’, a constant unified democracy (bear in mind that the latter word is a moveable and variable term). Take that away and the world becomes a very different place. Add on to that an unsettled and conflicted USA and other nations will see opportunities to ‘buy up bits on the cheap’ either in terms of land, businesses or members of the ruling classes. China and India could tell you a tale or too there. Nations no matter how big do decline.

Of course there is one final issue to consider, some large nations have not gone quietly, they have thrashed out trying to maintain their influence. A bedevilled and internally frustrated USA could well react very quickly and heavily if China did try and take Taiwan. One US government having a very bad day, might decide that Russia really has been getting thing too much its own way; the latter might come as a result of a purge of folk seen having had a history of being too friendly to Russia. When a nation becomes unstable, you cannot tell, which way anyone in government might go. Export the problem, either by design or default. The very big issue here being that very large arsenal of nuclear weapons. By some miracle the decline of the USSR did not result in new small nations playing with the weaponry. Luckily in the USA governors do not have access to nuclear codes. That said instability and a nuclear arsenal are a worrying combination.

Upon the Shoulders This Weighs

Therefore, by another default and most of you did not ask for this in any shape or form, but The World will be watching for the result of the Presidential Election with more than just a passing and deeply invested interest. There will be some holding of breaths, some sleepless nights, some pacing of floors, all depending on the time zone. We know from the last election there are folk some infused with toxic egos or a complete break with Reality who have lost any sense of maturity and responsibility and will over-react no matter what the result. The days of shrugging the shoulders and saying ‘Well it won’t be my fault when things go wrong’ or ‘That’s it. The country is done for! Where’s the remote? I’m gonna watch……..’ they are long gone.

It is too late to influence the result. That is now to be seen. What waits on the horizon is how to deal with the result, how to manage it and repair within the USA a return to stability and rationality. There is the challenge. For you, as an individual. The world waits.

Unfair isn’t it? You didn’t sign up for this. You have my sympathies. For we all bear some responsibility even in microscopic form for the ills of the World. It just so happens folk in the USA have been burdened with a larger piece than most.