Lebanon 17th September 2024 and new pages were added to the Book of War. Not a new subject because Humanity has always preferred to engage in warfare at long range. Stone, sling, spear, bow, gun, missile delivered from land, sea or air and of late the cyber domain. This time the means and nature were normally the preserve of the techno-thriller, had he lived longer, material for a Tom Clancy novel? This was Reality though, and unlike a book or its TV or Film derivatives, you can’t close it or switch the TV off. Think of the cyber world as a large expanse of water, and think of detonation of thousands of electronic pagers as being merged together as one piece of a cliff face falling into that water. Ripples? Think of waves, very big ones, tsunamis heading towards the shore of Humanity. They happen in Nature, and we are secondary to Nature. Like many events Humanity starts them, then they take on their own momentum, impose themselves on Reality and the events are not done with us. To this event then.
Hezbollah a very well equipped and funded Shia Islamist organisation based in but somewhat independent from Lebanon, as been waging war along the border with Israel for four decades. The increase in the war between Hamas in Palestine and Israel allowed a temporary settling of the Sunni / Shia difference to make common cause, having Israel fight a war on two front.
The overall narrative is still developing. It is known that electronic devices used by Hezbollah members were planted with some explosive materials which were denoted by remote control. Hezbollah had moved to using the lower tech pagers as it suspected Israeli ‘s Mossad, may have hacked into their mobile phone network.
Pagers have their origins back in the later 1940s and although have been overtaken by mobile phones as a means of communication are still a preferred choice for several emergency services as being more rugged and dependable in areas where signals are volatile or weak. They also cannot be hacked in the conventional sense. So how was this done? Well the media was quick to seek out answers, here is a link as to the practicalities of how such an event might be accomplished:
Then we have to consider just how all this was arranged. It is being claimed that the pagers originated from a Taiwanese Company, the owner of which denies direct involvement:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9qvl3vlvlvo
And as you will discern from the BBC article nothing is as simple as just saying ‘They Did It. They Supplied Them’ I am guessing that many a Technology, Security or Cyber Warfare journalist will be spending a few days or more trying to constructive from the myriad of threads of possibility, the rumours and the false trails even the beginnings of the comprehensive narrative as to how this came about. Some basic questions:
Who and how did they ensure the planting the explosive?
At what stage was the explosive implanted and by whom?
By what means did they ensure this supply would go to Hezbollah?
How did they make sure the signals would reach each and everyone?
Who were the Guns for Hire complicit in the physical acts?
I’m fair certain I have missed some more important questions too, for this is deep and long term work. It is the stuff of future books. If you have read of the preparations the Allied Forces went into to ensure D-Day had a reasonable chance of being a success, you’ll know it’s a lot more than just a few plucky heroes sneaking behind the lines. The planning, the construction and the enacting of this plan would have taken many folks long hours and efforts. This is, and always has been Espionage.
And, quite frankly, it is all military. More clinical than the dropping of ordinance out of the air, firing shells or missiles both in the vague direction of the foe, which is basically what most operations are, because maybe only those which take place in remote regions between conventional forces leave civilians unscared by direct fire. This one more clinical but not perfect, of course. You can’t ensure your target is not walking along holding the hand of their child, whose face is level with the pocket carrying the small explosive device, or has the child sitting of their lap when they activate the pager, or just happens to be in the same vicinity, or maybe as children do even pick up the device on a sudden whim. Some battles maybe clean of civilian casualties but no war ever has been. nor will be. There will be professionals deep in their crafts who will admire without thought what they see as astuteness of we assume the Israelis. You do not want to be that deep. Yet this is nothing new, only because of the technology does it cause a sharp intake of breath, killing the foe before they kill you, disrupt their networks, hit their moral. Older than recorded history.
Meanwhile the waves roar out across the cyber lake towards our shore. Folk start to look at their pager in another light. Can you blame them thinking ‘But What If?’. All those firms who are publicly connected in the supply chain will be in for a hard time; conventional orders falling off, obviously; Suspicions weighing heavy (who would want to be on Hezbollah’s list of Suspected Collaborators With Israel?); Markets in general hate any Uncertainties- this one Cyber Crime literally going explosive- what or who might be next? (A Japanese company associated with walkie-talkies for starters). And naturally the on the ground repercussions.
Of course the Conspiracy Junkies will be high for months to come yet, having had two allegorical nostrils full of this kind of cocaine, and they going screaming about the place in hysterical delight will unsettle others. Not that we really need them do we? After years of suicide vests, random shooters, people running amok with knives, driving cars into crowds, hackers screwing with vital utilities for thrills or on orders, never mind those incidents when a new system or system upgrade just cannot cope with the practical work load, and suddenly your debit card just doesn’t work today, or your phone goes off, or your laptop goes blue. All these convivences come with prices, terms and conditions, in languages we, the masses, can barely grasp.
The story will birth its own brood of stories which will quickly gives rise to another generation as the search for that elusive full narrative goes on. There will be Governments, CEOs, heads of organisations asking questions, needing reassurance from their tech folk, who might be only able to give a qualified ‘Maybe’. Because out there, let us remember, somewhere, somehow, the physical act of implanting many explosives devices was carried out, by some party within the tangled network of construction or supply chain. This was not simply a code constructed by another group of hackers, this was physical war work.
The waves are not yet done with us; those who watch, those affected, and those involved in the act. There will always be repercussions. Forget protesting on this one. War is finding opportunities and it is not caring, never mind listening. Trying to stop the next one is our best Hope.
Writing Despite Computers and Programmes 