Category Archives: Danger

The War Posts Part II – The Logic of War

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Foreword: This post is going to start off with what might be seen as in an unfair way. Bear with me.

Opening
I am going to ask you a few uncomfortable questions:

Have you ever felt there was a group of folk you disliked intensely for their views?
Have you ever felt some folk were so opposed to your outlook there was no arguing with them?
Have you ever felt personally threatened by some group for a perceived potentially invasive potential?
Have you ever felt that a group is such a threat to you and your way of life that  force as a last resort is justifiable?
Have you ever felt that a group or community holds views which you consider so repellent and inexcusable that they should not be allowed to continue?
Have you ever coveted anything?

You may feel justified in thinking these are a bit unfair and leading questions. Understandable. Yet I ask them, because in my opinion these are at the very basic, fundamental urges to resort to conflict. In short at this current stage in the development of Humanity, Humanity is wired for conflict. At the least in the verbal; at the worst in warfare. Now you may feel you, personally, can and have managed with much effort to circumvent these urges, and that is laudable. Can however you say the same for the majority of people around you, or to take it one step further, in the world?
Or does the evidence suggest that despite all the hard, harsh tragic lessons of History Humanity still defaults to conflict and thus War? I would contend on that current evidence this is the case. War is a facet of the current Human Condition and thus has its own Logic, one which exists in the extreme versions of those opening questions.

The Environment of the Logic of War
Being this extreme activity which involves the seizure or destruction of people, resources and property either because one side feels a need to or the other side feels the need to stop them, the thought processes, the perceptions and the decision making are ones outside of the usual civil procedures. After all willing acceptance to inflict Death and wilful Destruction are involved and those are very much Absolutes. It can be argued that some wars are conducted with some restraints at some times, but overall the application of violence to achieve or foil achievement are there at the basics. Thus those who are involved in warfare either by profession, political decision or simply in there by no choice at all will shift their perspectives from the civil and civic ways, eventually accepting in within such an environment indeed The Means Justifies The End. By Need or by Duty.

Practices Within The Logic of War 
As stated in the previous post the destruction of on side’s resources and will to resist in addition to their armies was always there in the campaign. This would take various forms.

Outright slaughter upon any who resisted – The Mongol Invasions of the 13th and 14th century took this to such extreme forms that some historians have cited the environment changed such was the loss of Human Life.

Subjugation of The Population – Either by terror or by enslavement. Common in the classical eras for a population of a fallen city to be put into slavery. Even in the 18th century prisons of war taken by the Hapsburg Empire could find themselves sold off to the Ottomans. And of course the continued fear of the armed enemy now living in your neighbourhood, quite at their whim. William the Conqueror to name but one dealt with an Anglo-Saxon uprising in the north of England by what was called ‘The Harrying of the North’. There a many, many more examples – the 20th & 21st centuries were and are carrying on an old response.

Treating People As Resources or Vermin – As briefly covered in the previous post and also during extreme examples of the above questions an action which is ingrained into war. Destroy the people and you destroy the foe’s abilities or will to continue. Jonathan Sumpton’s five volume history of the Hundred Years’ War is a masterful work in scope and in detail, although as you read through the fifth volume you are starting to wonder how there were any folk alive left in France by 1460 after the depravations of The English, The French Civil Wars and the ravaging by mercenary armies. The Thirty Years War is synonymous with slaughter, pillage and rapine throughout central Europe. To spare you any more details I would just summarise by saying in Eastern Europe through to Russia, down to the Ottoman and Persian Empires brutality was the order of the day. When you look through the history of China a similar picture arises. And you can go in any direction and find the same processes. The ultimately depressing or shocking facet being a people can be victims and later instigators, or the other way around and not unusually  both at once.

The Arrival of Industrial Efficiency – There would be some debate as to when this approach impacted on the processes of war. Arguably the overwhelming replacement of steel by the missile as the principal deliverer of action, so maybe the early years of the 18th Century.  Now over the next two centuries would develop a stronger intention to destroy armies by essentially blasting them apart and if the place of conflict happened to include villages or small towns, this was how things were. During this era the French Revolutionary armies developed the principal of mobility through not relying on long supply columns, but living off of the land; in the long history of warfare this was nothing new- grab what you want and if the civilians know what good for them they accept it. (Only this did not work out so well for the French in Spain or Russia, and in 1814 there was retribution visited by a revised Prussia) .  As armies grew larger and supply became a constant problem appropriation of civilians and civilian resources  was not reduced by enlightened thinking or the growth of request for ‘Rights’ and ‘Independence’  Far from it. Fired up by a new concept of Nationalism The Means Justifies The End edict was allowed to run riot, literally in many cases, and woe betide a minority living in an area where a majority had just gained independence, for minorities are always treated with suspicion (see those worrisome questions) 

Being Truly Professional and Social About it – There have always been professionals but the demands and developments of the 19th Century required far more study and contemplation of war, and many more books than simply instruction manuals were coming into print. Probably the one which springs to the military inclined mind would be the Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz’s ‘On War’ being treatises on political-military analysis and strategy, which although published in 1832, still hold some sway in these times. I would suggest this was when Modern War as we know it was distilled from its embryonic form of the Napoleon Era. The Means Justifies The End  now had a truly modern feel. The soldier had to be educated to some degree to handle sophisticated weapons; officer classes trained to handle the various demands of the modern armies and those armies motivated to embrace a nationalistic feel. Science ever in the background was also fully entering the mix and something to be given some study and respect, for it was an exciting new world and every advance had the possibility of finding a place in warfare. With all this taking place a nation looking for or to keep its place on the World Stage or simply stay independent had to be more than ever aware of all these factors. What had once been conducted at the behest of Princes, Kings and Emperors was now overseen by secular Governments and their professional armies. Public support on a national basis had been growing since the 18th Century but now became a strong demand. Thus a change was taking place in the industrialised world. War was not something which happened to the civilian population, the civilian population through the evolution of mass communication could now enter the dynamic, no longer involved in just local squabbles over land or defence or religion, but now through Nationhood. 

By the beginning of the 20th Century the capacity for destruction of not just a foe’s armies but it’s resources and people had developed by enveloping and refining the usage of all possible advances, scientific, political and social. The era we now call Modern needs its own post for there The Logic of War shows its true colours and potential   

The War Posts – Part I .An Introduction to War

A Spectre to be Exorcised (Communal Violence)- A Repeated from 2022

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Uncle Sam

I Am Looking To You To Do Your Patriotic Duty

Precursor: I originally wrote this post on the 8th May 2022. It featured in another blog of mine where I deal with grim subjects – The World As It Is. Not As It Should Be. Now it seems that WP’s response to my posting a recent link to this post has result in WP saying it cannot find it….. Ah well, let us not get diverted in the various whimsies that are WP’s speciality.

Thus here is a Copy & Paste of that post is here for your consideration. It may be too late to do anything about what might happen in the USA on and after the 5th of November 2024, and the subsequent ramifications across the world- for you are one of three largest and most globally influential nation states. Instead think of this as either a warning to keep to the legal and civil side of resistance against the tide of Ignorance, Hate and Falsehoods, or worst case a preparation for Discord.

Foreword

This post has to be long. Histories have to be considered. Social tides and trends examined. That most troublesome of all factors Human Nature faced. It is hoped you find this grim reading, but not sensationalist. This is a precursor for you to discuss in your homes, your blogs, your meeting places. These words are based on histories of communal violence throughout the world. Including the USA. I have tried to be apolitical, most of the time. It is not always possible. Blame has to be laid in places.

Introduction

The present view that so politically polarised the USA has become, a civil war could take place has moved from blog site discussion onto the mainstream where more sober assessments are. For example:

Brookings in the following assessment of September 2021 concluded there was a sizeable proportion of the USA population who were of this mindset:

Is the US headed for another Civil War? (brookings.edu)

In January of 2022 an article in the UK Guardian raised this possibility along the lines of the UK’s own experience in Ulster

Is the US really heading for a second civil war? | US politics | The Guardian

Overview

It should be borne in mind that Racism, Intolerance, Profiling and Subjugation  are regrettably part of the Human Construct. No race, people, community, grouping, belief system have been free of it. So it is within the USA.

Although legislation and more constructive outlooks made moves to minimise the effects of these corrosions it requires a mammoth task of social engineering to purge them. Something which would challenge even the most efficient and established of authoritarian states.

Thus not the passing phase of the 1960s counter-culture whose short tenure could reduce it to arguably a fashion. Instead it was in the deep-rooted places of a Human Insecurity in sections of The White Community fed by the fear of loss of position in society where the nascent rebellions would grow.

The US involvement in Vietnam with a cost of wasted blood and treasure, left on one side a sense of worthless loss, on the other an anger at some sort of betrayal at home; possibly the first cultural fracture line in The White Community; the dominant group within the USA. These would be played out in the Culture Wars. Not enough attention being given to the mindset which gave rise to the Oklahoma City Bombing of 19th April 1995; this was the warning.

Then in the opening years of the 21st Century came two tipping points:

9/11 and the election of an African American into the Whitehouse, twice with majorities. The former had shaken America and set loose more of those toxic fantasies Conspiracy Theories, for the long term trust in government of the USA as dangerous as any handgun. In the case of the latter, the fact he was a Democrat made the backlash easier for one element of the White Community. Had Colin Powell or Condoleezza Rice accepted a Eisenhower type draft and won, the Republican Party and Fundamentalist Right would have suffered a truly existential crisis. But they had a black democrat. This made everything much easier.

Civil Discord (The Path to Communal Violence)

It is now necessary to move from the historical to consider the dynamics of civil discord  which lead to a break down in the common currency of discourse, bargaining, and the tacit, sometimes humorous acceptance of tribal lines.

Firstly the notion that ‘There is no Democracy’ has to be put aside, for people are able within the USA take to  the streets, the airwaves, the internet to give voice to their feelings. Thus there is freedom of speech and action, however in an atmosphere of heightened feeling this freedom comes with  tensions and reactions. The first tension arises when people feel their views are not being listened to, or being stifled. The second tension arises when those frustrations are inflamed by the feeling ‘The Other Side’ are not just ignoring, but are seen to be imposing. At this point there occurs a fault line when a shared perception results in ‘The Other Side’ being seen as a threat and there can be no discourse, the only facet shared by both sides being this mindset. At this stage both sides will feel the need to demonstrate, one will feel it is defending, the other will perceive this as aggression, engendered through the fault line affect. Initially it will be seen one side is more aggressive and assertive thus encourage within them a certain sense of triumphalism. This adds to the danger as in playing to its own support it fails to take into account that the very forces which placed it in this position will also work within the opposition. There is made a fundamental error that the triumphant side  can use Democracy and the Other Side will adhere to that rule. In addition some of its more strident supporters will feel the leaders are not strong enough and perceive the need to be ready to defend or if necessary attack with unconstitutional force. The stance sets within The Other Side the feeling they had better prepare. You need only scroll the internet to see that the ridiculously named ‘Snowflakes’ have been starting to own guns.

2016 to Today

To support my views in the previous section it is necessary to consider the last two presidential elections. In 2016 the victory went not to the candidate with the most votes but the electoral college votes. Thus from Day One the losing side felt robbed. A more astute winner in 2016 would have sensed the issue and navigated. By 2016 this was not wanted by the winning side and the other side were willing to take up the fight. By 2020 the lack of discourse had reached such a pitch that the losers of that election believed they had the right to seize back power because of a fraudulent election. This theme continues even now as a backdrop in the 2024 election.

The Republican Reaction as seen from The Other Side

Although cast out of the Whitehouse and seeming to fail in the courts of law, aside from the Supreme Court, the political machines now holding control of the Republican Party have been working at a pace to unravel the social, legal and communal trends of the past 50 years as they seek to defend their own ground. Instead of the usual slow, methodical  approach in this heightened tension they have sought to dismantle the processes of The History of Race Relations, Sexual Orientation and Abortion with no effort in trying to convince the opposition of their causes, they pass a simple edict. As they see it, this was done to them, it is now time to undo it. This is against the wishes of the Executive branch, the Whitehouse. Another layer of  confrontation therefore plays into the dynamic of continuing Civil Discord. In both cases ‘The Other Side’ are a threat.

Update: As it will have been noted in the schools, against the Abortion Clinics, the LGBT+ community and the refugees, the Right has seen fit not to use the politics of reasoned argument but of extreme language. Which is turn has resulted in similar response. Thus rather than try to calm down the situation, the temperature has increased so by this year 2024 the polarisation is wider.

The Acceleration of Civil Discord

In this frenetic atmosphere attention must be given to the structure of the USA at federal level. In use of the three office system: Executive (The Whitehouse). The Legislature (Congress/Senate) and Judiciary (Supreme Court) mirrored at State Level it was believed enough checks and balances had been built in. However with Conspiracy as deadly to the body politic as Covid to the population; dismay raised to horror by one group or another at the result of the last four presidential elections, the legislature abrogating its traditional and beneficial wheeler-dealing to consensus and the Supreme Court no longer perceived as a body above The Common Brawl another layer of toxicity has arisen. Belief that the system is no longer working. Either dread for the future, anger at The Other Side,  grim preparation to defend the home becomes a norm, or violent intention to impose The Will of Our Side(s).

The Tipping Point into Communal Violence

One action leading to a sudden call to or inexorable slide to fully conventionally armed groups is not how this will start. In a nation nearly inured to gun crime you might even miss the start; another shooting, unless of course it is between two groups. The next tranche of violent confrontations, would be by the bombs,  IEDs, the murder of prominent activists or journalists, politicians and any combination. These will be the signals the Tipping Point has been reached. This will lead to the ‘No Go Areas’, the latter being underscored by some very unwise incursion by one group into another and the subsequent ambush. It would appear police are already experiencing these; the next step in this will be the targeting of individual officers. From here will come the targeting of official buildings of government, of one party or another, and then for some twisted thought process a hospital, parents might well start to keep children away from school, seeing the history of school killings this would hardly be surprising.

In this atmosphere although groups will be surveyed, there will be the under the radar individuals for each person has their own tipping point. In recent years I have read the remarks of avid anti-war believers and pro-gun control supporters intimating or outright suggest a violent response is a feasible solution. You will never know when the normally placid person will take a gun with the specific purpose of solving a problem, or the group who decided to investigate how to make bombs, because they’ve been pushed too far. Of course each of these actions will bring the reaction.

The Institutionalisation of Violence

One fatalistic view is, considering the level of gun crime, this state is already in place. However the level can become more intense, once armed groups with names and agenda become seen by one community or another as legitimate alternative police or local guard. There is another level though, this being when the group imposes upon the community a code of behaviour and underground tax to support them, the tax does not have a right of appeal either. With this comes disputes within the group and rivalries with other groups. Hardened now by violence and fuelled by suspicion the violent solution is seen as the norm. And of course wherever there is chaos and violence goes crime, gangs would quite naturally seek to impose their own will either to take over a group or keep a group out of their activities. Those who felt it was only necessary to parade in paramilitary style in a threatening way will find themselves quite out of their depths as a fearful natural selection takes place.

The Official Response.

This is where matters are not so predictable. The National Guard would of course be called in to areas where the police are losing control. Being in a local part-time force with local affiliation it has to be assumed that members or groups within the guard will have sympathies, or feel a certain intimidation. Direct and open large scale mutinies would be very unlikely but expecting all The Guard to be a faceless, emotionless unified body acting only for the defence of Stability and safety of all is naïve, there will be fractures.

The Security Services be they Police, FBI, NSA etc would face the same pressures from within. Also they being closer to the body politic and the civil viewpoint would be in the position of doing deals or reaching accords with whichever group or groups they feel they can work with. In all civil discord this is an ugly fact. Whether in a federal system such as the USA this would be a uniform approach is again highly unlikely.

Whether or not the Armed Forces become involved would depend on whether the nation is still governable as a working state comparable with the pre-violent situation:

“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God.”  Is open to interpretations, if some decide ‘The President’ is not legally ‘The President’. One thing would be certain, the element of internal security and supervision of members of the armed forces would be increased. Forget Conspiracies. Think of Factionalism.

The Resulting Political Overview

In this area prediction is near impossible, as a great deal would depend on the strength of character of individuals around which groups marshal. There are many possibilities. One of the least worst outcomes would be the fragmentation of the current USA into states which have autonomy. Washington, The Whitehouse and Capitol Hill being reduced to places of symbolism and the possible headquarters of Americanised versions of The EU and NATO, in an attempt to shore up America from outside influences while making workable the large armed forces and corporation based trading systems onto the world stage. How workable this would be is beyond the scope of this post.

Conclusion

Whereas The Ulster Conflict was conducted under a higher level of government the situation in the USA has the potential to reach up to the highest levels as already demonstrated and this is a most distressing situation. Thus what can a US citizen fearful for this scenario do? My suggestion is to voice your concerns, not in a partisan way from your own standpoint but as an appeal to stop this slide. Raise this spectre which everyday seems to draw an inch nearer. Demand of your representatives a return to consensus. Warn them, that they in the final analysis in any failure to bring discourse and consensus to the issues; that they in pandering to, or failing to confront the extremist levels will be complicit in the deaths of their fellow citizens. Raise this in conversation. Not as a warning to prepare, but as a concern as to what might come. The concern must become a talking point in the run up to the next elections. The violent minorities must be marginalised and the conspiracies put back in the toy box.

An Update in Late October 2024

A Formulaic View of The Acceleration of Civic Discord

Regrettably what passes as rhetoric by the republican candidate and his running mate suggests that neither have much concern about what effect they are having on any opposition, in that they are playing only to their own and on the fears of the undecided. They are therefore playing with matches in a forest in a high summer’s drought. And the groups feeling the subject of hate and discrimination I will repeat this formulae for you based on a possibility of the result of the presidential election, itself based on current polls:

160 million votes cast
Trump wins by 82 millions to 78 million. That’s 78,000,000 folk upset about the result.
10% are very, very angry . That’s 7,800,000 angry folk.
10% of that 7,800,000 are so angry they feel their way of Life and Democracy is seriously threatened, the feeling parallel to if the nation was invaded. That’s 780,000.
1% of the 780,000 feel the new administration and its supporters in the states are now viable targets. That’s 7,800. A very small number, but how many of the others tucked away the previous number have a sympathy that ‘does not yet speak it’s name,’ .
The 7,800 start to go public and as stated above with it make those inflammatory statements and acts. A similar reaction arises within the ranks of the supporters of Trump.

And so it begins. Not ranks as in the Civil War, but the covert groups as we in the UK saw in Northern Ireland, no central control, agendas within agendas and legal access to so many guns.

Violence be it is war or communal discord contains its own grim logic and thus inevitability.

Take heed. But look not to the gun. Look to Democracy while it still gasps for breath. Look to the Law. Look to the Passive Civil Disobedience. Cling to and nurture Hope. Never give up. Support the Persecuted. Speak with those who are only broadly conservative. Defy The Hate-Mongers. Convince or Warn the Uncertain. Keep on.

Prove my unhappy words to be just written out of Fear and not out of Histories.

USA. Your Time is Running Out.

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ITALY-FRANCE-WEATHER-FEATURE

Yes USA. You as many a nation before you are being called to account. You stand at a crossroads. You may have been told this is all about Liberty. You will have been warned that there is a risk Democracy could be taken away from you. You will have been told that Intolerance and Bigotry will be rife.

Indeed, all possibilities, and then things could get worse. Much worse. Worse than you may have imagined. Or maybe dreaded.

Exaggeration you say?

OK. Look at it this way. This winter, there will be weather warnings about heavy snowfalls. I take it you will take precautions to try to minimise the effect. I expect you will not ignore them, unless you are suffering from conspiracitis. (A terminal disease). You will pay attention.
So why do you not pay attention to the warning of what can happen if the Right once more win this presidential election? Or if they lose have another spoiled brat tantrum?

Think you worst possibility, then think worse again.

Ah dear reader I am done writing mild(ish) balanced posts. This is an updated version of another post, from another blog

https://politicsandhistory359465094.wordpress.com/2022/05/08/a-spectre-to-be-exorcised-communal-violence/↗

I very much doubt if this will be read by the numbers of folk my words are intended for, it is probably too late and I have written this theme over and over again down the past few years.

So why bother?

It’s not about my nation, the UK. It appears to be a self-inflicted folly by a portion of a nation who gave up thinking of Implications and Consequences and either switched off or dreamed out the jagged cutting parts of the ideas fed them.

Why bother?

Because it is my duty to bother. Because in this world of instance communication, complex interlockings and interactions, where after two Global Wars and a series large enough conflicts with attendant social eruptions, whatever happens ‘There’ will be implications ‘Here’. Because if I claim to embrace a set of values which generally aims for Compassion, Tolerance and Respect, it is not acceptable to sit back,  shrug and do something pleasantly diverting.
Because the forces which are set out in the Broadness of History constantly roiling are at a stage at which they threaten to erupt. History you say, is always written by the victor…..Nonsense. History has a long, long reach and victors of one time do not stay thus.

It can be argued that no two nations histories go along the same lines. However there are tides and there are commonalities, particularly in the areas of discord. If one grouping feels another grouping is imposing upon it, in a heavy and unjust way, then there will be a reaction. The group of course doing the imposition will feel that it is justified to do so. Lines will be drawn, discourse will be closed down, each will turn unto themselves. And when the side imposing the will does not have the unconditional support  of all the security or defence forces personnel having made personal attacks upon them, it is then that unpleasant and unthinkable possibilities arise.
And in the USA this is being drawn in a very ever thickening line. For neither side has the will or ability to reach over to the other; despite the efforts of some very brave folk, there is no general consensus for this polarisation to stop. Thus from here the chances of physical conflict are raised upwards, to volatile states as one ‘But they can’t / wouldn’t do that’ gets swept away by the next newsfeed.

Some foolish folk will welcome it, thinking of a replay of the Civil War, or some sort of boardgame set up (yes they are out there, rather naïve ideas of the opposing forces) and there’s a very, very politically unsatisfactory unrealistic film going the rounds too.
It would not be like that. Look not to Syria of the past decade as an example, turn instead to Northern Ireland of the late 20th century, and maybe with an edge of mutiny within some of those charged with order.

Writing this it is difficult not to have the ageless Dylan song ‘Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall’ in my head. Listen to its lyrics and fit them into this time and place in the USA.

One final thought. Of course, there will be other nations seeking to take advantage of this. The motives are inscribed in the International Relations playbooks. If I was living in and devoted to that nation and fearful of the USA I would be expecting my government to do something to benefit ‘our nation’

A handful days of deciding and one day of voting to go. I personally only have Hope left in my resources. Hope for my friends in the USA, Hope for the folk of Ukraine, Hope for Hope’s sake.

Hope that the 6th of November will be decked in an allegorical sunrise.

And Hope that over the course of the next year, this post will be made to look ridiculously overblown and alarmist. A small price to pay.

The Wrath Which Came Out of a Technological Fog

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Wrath

Lebanon 17th September 2024 and new pages were added to the Book of War. Not a new subject because Humanity has always preferred to engage in warfare at long range. Stone, sling, spear, bow, gun, missile delivered from land, sea or air and of late the cyber domain. This time the means and nature were normally the preserve of the techno-thriller, had he lived longer, material for a Tom Clancy novel? This was Reality though, and unlike a book or its TV or Film derivatives, you can’t close it or switch the TV off. Think of the cyber world as a large expanse of water, and think of detonation of thousands of electronic pagers as being merged together as one piece of a cliff face falling into that water. Ripples? Think of waves, very big ones, tsunamis heading towards the shore of Humanity. They happen in Nature, and we are secondary to Nature. Like many events Humanity starts them, then they take on their own momentum, impose themselves on Reality and the events are not done with us. To this event then.

Hezbollah a very well equipped and funded Shia Islamist organisation based in but somewhat independent from Lebanon, as been waging war along the border with Israel for four decades. The increase in the war between Hamas in Palestine and Israel allowed a temporary settling of the Sunni / Shia difference to make common cause, having Israel fight a war on two front.

The overall narrative is still developing. It is known that electronic devices used by Hezbollah members were planted with some explosive materials which were denoted by remote control. Hezbollah had moved to using the lower tech pagers as it suspected Israeli ‘s Mossad, may have hacked into their mobile phone network.

Pagers have their origins back in the later 1940s and although have been overtaken by mobile phones as a means of communication are still a preferred choice for several emergency services as being more rugged and dependable in areas where signals are volatile or weak. They also cannot be hacked in the conventional sense. So how was this done? Well the media was quick to seek out answers, here is a link as to the practicalities of how such an event might be accomplished:

https://news.sky.com/story/how-does-a-pager-explode-the-steps-needed-to-remotely-detonate-hezbollah-devices-13217335

Then we have to consider just how all this was arranged. It is being claimed that the pagers originated from a Taiwanese Company, the owner of which denies direct involvement:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9qvl3vlvlvo

And as you will discern from the BBC article nothing is as simple as just saying ‘They Did It. They Supplied Them’ I am guessing that many a Technology, Security or Cyber Warfare journalist will be spending a few days or more trying to constructive from the myriad of threads of possibility, the rumours and the false trails even the beginnings of the comprehensive narrative as to how this came about. Some basic questions:
Who and how did they ensure the planting the explosive?
At what stage was the explosive implanted and by whom?
By what means did they ensure this supply would go to Hezbollah?
How did they make sure the signals would reach each and everyone?
Who were the Guns for Hire complicit in the physical acts? 

I’m fair certain I have missed some more important questions too, for this is deep and long term work. It is the stuff of future books. If you have read of the preparations the Allied Forces went into to ensure D-Day had a reasonable chance of being a success, you’ll know it’s a lot more than just a few plucky heroes sneaking behind the lines. The planning, the construction and the enacting of this plan would have taken many folks long hours and efforts. This is, and always has been Espionage. 

And, quite frankly, it is all military. More clinical than the dropping of ordinance out of the air, firing shells or missiles both in the vague direction of the foe, which is basically what most operations are, because maybe only those which take place in remote regions between conventional forces leave civilians unscared by direct fire. This one more clinical but not perfect, of course. You can’t ensure your target is not walking along holding the hand of their child, whose face is level with the pocket carrying the small explosive device, or has the child sitting of their lap when they activate the pager, or just happens to be in the same vicinity, or maybe as children do even pick up the device on a sudden whim. Some battles maybe clean of civilian casualties but no war ever has been. nor will be. There will be professionals deep in their crafts who will admire without thought what they see as astuteness of we assume the Israelis. You do not want to be that deep. Yet this is nothing new, only because of the technology does it cause a sharp intake of breath, killing the foe before they kill you, disrupt their networks, hit their moral. Older than recorded history. 

Meanwhile the waves roar out across the cyber lake towards our shore. Folk start to look at their pager in another light. Can you blame them thinking ‘But What If?’. All those firms who are publicly connected in the supply chain will be in for a hard time; conventional orders falling off, obviously; Suspicions weighing heavy (who would want to be on Hezbollah’s list of Suspected Collaborators With Israel?); Markets in general hate any Uncertainties- this one Cyber Crime literally going explosive- what or who might be next? (A Japanese company associated with walkie-talkies for starters). And naturally the on the ground repercussions.
Of course the Conspiracy Junkies will be high for months to come yet, having had two allegorical nostrils full of this kind of cocaine, and they going screaming about the place in hysterical delight will unsettle others. Not that we really need them do we? After years of suicide vests, random shooters, people running amok with knives, driving cars into crowds, hackers screwing with vital utilities for thrills or on orders, never mind those incidents when a new system or system upgrade just cannot cope with the practical work load, and suddenly your debit card just doesn’t work today, or your phone goes off, or your laptop goes blue.  All these convivences come with prices, terms and conditions, in languages we, the masses, can barely grasp.   

The story will birth its own brood of stories which will quickly gives rise to another generation as the search for that elusive full narrative goes on. There will be Governments, CEOs, heads of organisations asking questions, needing reassurance from their tech folk, who might be only able to give a qualified ‘Maybe’. Because out there, let us remember, somewhere, somehow, the physical act of implanting many explosives devices was carried out, by some party within the tangled network of construction or supply chain. This was not simply a code constructed by another group of hackers, this was physical war work.

The waves are not yet done with us; those who watch, those affected, and those involved in the act. There will always be repercussions. Forget protesting on this one. War is finding opportunities and it is not caring, never mind listening. Trying to stop the next one is our best Hope.

Cause and Effect. This Time in Papua New Guinea

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Papua New Guinea Landslide

In this photo provided by the International Organization for Migration, an injured person is carried on a stretcher to seek medical assistance after a landslide in Yambali village, Papua New Guinea, Friday, May 24, 2024. More than 100 people are believed to have been killed in the landslide that buried a village and an emergency response is underway, officials in the South Pacific island nation said. The landslide struck Enga province, about 600 kilometers (370 miles) northwest of the capital, Port Moresby, at roughly 3 a.m., Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported. (Benjamin Sipa/International Organization for Migration via AP)

Here is the BBC’s update on the situation as at 8am BST UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckkkyxvdv5eo

In this BBC link the toll of dead, injured and missing has risen to 670, as is often the case when more information comes to light. A landslide, and thoughts will likely focus on the possible environmental issues be they de-forestation, other mis-management or unusually heavy rain fall. Landslides, mudslides call the event what you will. Suffice it to say large and sudden movements of not just mud, but rocks, stones, trees and other dangerous debris cutting a swathe through populated areas, and not just isolated villages are a regular news events. Another warning.

I would ask you to read this and then pause at the last passage which I make no apologies for highlighting here below:

“But Care Australia, the humanitarian agency which is helping with relief efforts, warned that the number affected was “likely to be higher” because of an influx of people escaping tribal conflicts in neighbouring areas.“

Yes, the other blight which we see countless news items on. Inter communal violence. Those who work with incredible courage and dedication will have seen this aspect time and time again. We will of course not seen much in the main news about the myriad of ongoing situations

And here is a link from the International Red Cross page on the situation

https://www.icrc.org/en/papua-new-guinea-tribal-fights

And an extract from the Wikipedia page on Ethnic Violence in Papua New Guinea

“In 2021, approximately 30,000 people were displaced by tribal violence around the Highlands region. In Enga Province, fighting between the Yalingin tribe and the Yambalekin tribe that costs the lives of 80 people and began the year prior ended in a peaceful settlement.In the 2022 national election about 89,000 people were displaced nationwide, with most being from the Highlands region”

It is distressing. It may cause you anger. Despair. The eternal cry of anguish ‘But What Can I Do?’ . Yes you, I also of us may feel helpless at yet another news items of tragedy, indicating not just one but two sources. What can we do? For Pity’s Sake, we cry.

Well – If there is an appeal site and you feel you can manage even a small amount. There is that. The IRC has it’s own donation’s tab.

Also- When encountering, as we all must these days, those who make abusive aggressive comments or in the case of Charities those negative conspiracy heavy nonsense excuses, tell them they are not helping anyone, they are making things worse not just for others but also themselves, and then do not engage any further….let them think on that- it’s called sewing doubt- sometimes it has to be done.

You may also care to post up news items about these (God forgive me for using this word) ‘relatively’ minor incidents and highlight the message that unless we constructively address both problems all across the world, eventually there will be no ‘world’ left for our descendants.

Yes, I know these seem small, almost inconsequential steps but if enough millions to make say a billion or so take this approach, it is a start, a push back. Right? 

For who knows when the equivalent in one form or another will come knocking on our own door?

Stay alert. Stay active. Stay caring. Stay compassionate. Stay.

Standing Your Ground With Your Eyes Shut Tight?

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Greg_Abbott_official_portrait_2024Daniel Perry

There are times when anger or outrage does not suit the intention. Maybe the writer gets lucky and is standing far enough back to be able to feel just enough ‘Detached’ (ironically that is) to write with simply a large cloud of Sigh hovering above them. With mass slaughters making place across the world, what does one governor being political over one killing matter? After all this is the USA in an election year where polarisation carries on at a High Summer pace. Bound to happen somewhere, somewhen.

And it’s not as if Governor Abbot has not been open and straight forward in the past about his views. He defended the right for the Ten Commandments to be displayed on a public monument. He opposes gun control. He has stood his ground in court against same-sex marriage. As Governor he has supported Trump. Now although I personally have to give him his due for 2016 action which banned aborted foetus from being disposed on a sanitary landfill and required burial or cremation, he, nonetheless, has worked hard to limit abortion rights and thereby putting women’s lives at risk, whether he will limit pregnant women’s rights to travel we shall see . He stated that guns are not the problem it’s ‘Hearts Without God’ or mental health; how he proposed to police these factors he did not say. He also seemed to favour the Jade Helm 15 conspiracy theories. There’s more but you get the general idea.

Well, so far, so clear. What you see is what you get. An unashamed. unapologetic Governor with Right Wing, Strong Fundamentalism Christian Views, and Guns. So we should not be surprised at all he was quick to pardon Daniel Perry, because “Texas has one of the strongest ‘Stand Your Ground’ laws of self-defence” That’s what Governor Greg Abott said. You can’t argue with that stance can you know? Right up there, in Texas you have the right to defend yourself when threatened, you can shoot someone down, if you feel your life is threatened.

OK, let’s back up just a bit.  We have ‘The Letter of the Law’ and ‘The Spirit of The Law’. Now just think about that one, because it is a place filled with trip-ups and unintended consequences. Along with leaving the person making the decision open to all sorts of problems down the road.

Firstly let’s consider the next part of the Governor’s quote……“that cannot be nullified by a jury or a progressive District Attorney,” . So firstly does that mean that a jury’s verdict can be overturned by a Governor’s say-so…well ‘Yes’- I mean that is what ‘Pardon’ is about. But ‘progressive District Attorney’. Now that does sound like an open political biased statement attacking a official…. which may be fair game in the US since folk run for the office. However I’m not done yet . I wish to look at the case of the person being pardoned.

Daniel Perry felt threatened. OK. But Daniel Perry had:

Begun searching for the locations of Black Lives Matter protests weeks before the shooting and messaged friends on social media, comparing protesters to “a bunch of monkeys flinging [expletive] at a zoo”. 

In May 2020, shortly after George Floyd’s death, he sent a text message saying: “I might go to Dallas to shoot looters.”  

He also sent messages about “hunting Muslims” and about killing a daughter if she had a crush on “a little negro boy”.

Therefore it can be argued we did not have one hapless driver who took the wrong turning, blundered into the wrong crowd and panicked, We had a man who reacted out of anger? Deep seated rage? Letting loose? 

And the Governor  act out of pity for the hapless frightened man who panicked, or did he pardon him out of sympathy for his stance of standing his ground as a matter of principal, in defence of his home, not his house, but his turf, his own cultural home. The Governor is versed in the law, politics and the laws of politics and I bet could comfortably get out of those questions. A professional and a very astute one too. Me? I’m just some guy who might be standing my own ground? Well, yes I am in the UK. But hear me out now.  

The Governor has established support for ‘Stand Your Ground’, firmly. Will he be comfortable when a liberal activist when in their home and being harassed by a group of right-wing opponents hammering on their door and yelling abuse, comes to the door with their own gun, and opens fire? Suppose there is this fellow taking his pregnant partner or spouse to the airport on one last visit pre-birth to a relative out of state and has been followed by a car of pro-life extremists who have been keeping a watch on this suspected pair, force the car to the halt, but to protect his pregnant partner or spouse the driver comes out with his gun and seeing weaponry in the cars, opens fire first? 

I can give worse troubles than that. Within Texas state someone ‘Without God’ or with ‘Mental Issues’ decides that the whole state is their Home and goes out into the night, just happening to be wearing a Biden T-Shirt in the hope they might, by chance come across a group of Opposition and left that group make the first move, but that person makes the first shot.

Then there may be the LGBT+ couples who meet at their usual social gathering. Only thing is now they are armed, openly, which is bound to attract opposition, armed. And the next thing you have is two lots of folks ‘Standing Their Ground’

I am afraid  it can start with one incident, one relatively small incident and then can spread. It is not necessarily bound to happen. There is always the risk. Because you do not know who ‘is packing’ and on Defcon 4 (Above normal readiness)

I might not be able take Governor Abott on in court, I daresay he would shred me. He would Stand His Ground. But I can sure raise the flag of warning, because he has no more idea of what the future might bring than I do. On that we are equal

These Days The World War Comes In Many Sizes.

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Crocus City Hall

Crocus City Hall, Moscow 22nd March 2024 .It was 14, then 30, then 60 then 93. Dead. Injured? It was many, then a 100. How many escaped? Not known, but they will carry scars. Maybe they will be fearful of being in a crowd, never to go to any event again, fearing they may hear screams and gun shots. Will they ever sleep naturally again. Then multiply by numbers by relatives, friends, associates.

They were going to a concert. To have a good time. Enjoy themselves. Forget the troubles of the World. Maybe ease the pain of the loss of someone sent to Ukraine. Parallels to many Israelis back in October 2023. They were going about their ordinary lives. Just like Americans who happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time in 83 mass shootings in 2024 (Up until February that is).

They weren’t in combat. They not were fitted out for fighting. They weren’t even living in dread. Not like folk in Port au Prince. Folk in Gaza. Folk in the Sudan. Folk across the Sahel (look on a map for yourself). In Congo. In Nigeria. In Pakistan. In India. In Philippines. In Malyaia. In Myanmar. In Mexico. In Ukraine. In Yemen. And that list goes on and on and on. World War. Not neat. Not one side vs another. That’s out-dated, washed away amongst the mudslide of agendas and causes, and the debris of alliances; mostly based on Hypocrisy. 

Somewhere there is at least one record tallying up the estimates of non-combatants being killed. And someone will be parsing those numbers up into those unfortunately killed in cross-fires. those who were living near strategic targets, those slaughtered in some frenzy of hate and those who starve or sicken untreated because of a lack of resources. As if there is some comfort in pointing out that portions of those deaths were ‘unfortunate’. Like the police chief in To Have and Have Not says laconically about the death of the American tourist caught in cross-fire ‘It is unfortunate’ .But it’s war. What can you do?… Don’t start one? Or is that just a painfully innocent a suggestion.

Nothing worthwhile is easy to solve.

Crocus City Hall, Moscow 22nd March 2024. Dead, dying, injured, traumatised  by being there, traumatised by association. Multiply that by the number of wars, rebellions, militias, gangs, mercenaries, authoritarian states, hate-groups. Some calculation. Like one of those massive boards that physicists and mathematicians have to use.  

There will be the usual dash to social media to pump out the agenda. Blame this group. Blame that nation. ‘I hate…. I’m gonna blame them’….. ‘Yeah me too’. The keyboards must have been hammered over the last 12 hours.

And there will be those who will justify, or glorify those who walked into Crocus City Hall on Moscow 22nd March 2024 and killed ‘in the name of’. Like the killing of non-combatant folk of a nation is going to make any state think ‘Oh gosh. We were wrong. Sorry,’ Russia, Israel, USA, China. Four classic examples of what happens when you tread on their toes, their majorities. No, they default to ‘Someone has to pay,’ Like any group, any region, any nation with a grudge or agenda really, deep down, worries about the loss of non-combatant life. Like any of those listens to any protest across the world.

Crocus City Hall, Moscow 22nd March 2024. It’s 115 dead now. Four suspects held. Flowers being left at the site, people donating blood. It’s what ordinary folk do. Do something. Meanwhile as expected both the Ukrainian and Russian governments or security services make claim, counter claim and ridiculous assertions abut the other side. At least the ordinary folk are doing something constructive.

World War. As in a world beset by wars in all shapes and sizes, many so deep, convoluted and old that the original reasons were lost somewhere and there’s only The War. You could claim Political Expediency, Culture, Religion, Poverty, Corruption, Old Enmities, New Ones, Suspicion, Communal Hysteria; take your pick; add another, there’s no shortage.

But what to do? No use saying ‘It’s Not my Problem’. USA.Back in the 1990s what was going in The Middle East, Saudi Arabia, ‘The Gulf’ Lebanon was not ‘Your Problem’. Sure the government sent armies and folk got killed, which was a shame. But nothing to do with you. Then came 9/11- direct Cause and Effect and the USA went into several sorts of hysteria which is still plaguing you today. 

And why do European nations and the USA wonder why folk from other nations are flooding into their lands. War. Famine through War. Why else should folk be so desperate? 

In these days of hyper-travel, hyper-trade and hyper-communication what happens somewhere will eventually find its way in some way to your door, even if it is but an increase the cost of your favourite…..

Crocus City Hall, Moscow 22nd March 2024. It’s our problem. It’s our tragedy. It’s our concern. And that nagging one, deep down inside. The one place where you get into the tangle of Cause & Effect, of Apathy and its distant cousin Selective Outrage, of Disassociation, of Assumptions Without Thought, and the rest. The one where we have to ask ‘Was That Something To Do With Me?’ Hopefully not. Hopefully you started out as innocent bystander who tried to do something constructive, even in a small, small, hardly noticed way, a ripple. Me? Involved in a war? You’d be surprised how far the reach is. 

Still, bear this in mind. It takes a lot of folk a long time to make a World War. And there are never simple answers.

One thing though. Those who beat the drums loud, and long. Folk who give you one liners as solutions. People who claim that killing their neighbours is the only solution. Mobs that blame an entire people for the crimes of a government. Ones who claim they have a direct line to a deity who says its OK to kill. 

They are liars, wretched creatures. And irrespective of the differences in their politics, religions, races and locations, they are all the same. Hate mongers. Blights. Bloodied hands by deed or association.  

Crocus City Hall, Moscow 22nd March 2024. Take some time out today to think of the victims. 

It’s a regular event in some parts of the world.

Jill’s Horror Story. Which is not so Fictional.

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Filosofa Tries Something Different …

Our Jill has taken the plunge into writing fiction. But is it?

Take a read and think back to factual accounts you may have come across in reliable newsfeeds. You know that normally in Horror stories the reader can be chilled but also take comfort in the idea, ‘This could never happen to me. S’only a fiction,’ . Well this one narratives a series of events which may come tapping at your door. Be prepared to be chilled and warned.

Well done Jill